US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and Crimea, Ukrainian security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. A temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9-11, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to extend despite initial hopes. Subsequent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and an immediate frontline truce received no Russian commitment, with Moscow citing lack of progress and insisting on prior Istanbul and Anchorage frameworks. As of mid-July, the Kremlin stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations amid continued strikes and divergent positions on neutrality and postwar arrangements. These unresolved political and military dynamics continue to shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСоглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
$5,771,784 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября
16%
31 августа
7%
31 декабря
34%
$5,771,784 Объем
31 октября
$821,818 Объем
16%
31 августа
$334,029 Объем
7%
31 декабря
$2,078,604 Объем
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and Crimea, Ukrainian security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. A temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9-11, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to extend despite initial hopes. Subsequent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and an immediate frontline truce received no Russian commitment, with Moscow citing lack of progress and insisting on prior Istanbul and Anchorage frameworks. As of mid-July, the Kremlin stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations amid continued strikes and divergent positions on neutrality and postwar arrangements. These unresolved political and military dynamics continue to shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Объем
$5,771,784Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and Crimea, Ukrainian security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. A temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9-11, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to extend despite initial hopes. Subsequent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and an immediate frontline truce received no Russian commitment, with Moscow citing lack of progress and insisting on prior Istanbul and Anchorage frameworks. As of mid-July, the Kremlin stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations amid continued strikes and divergent positions on neutrality and postwar arrangements. These unresolved political and military dynamics continue to shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$5,771,784Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues including territorial control in Donbas and Crimea, Ukrainian security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. A temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9-11, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to extend despite initial hopes. Subsequent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and an immediate frontline truce received no Russian commitment, with Moscow citing lack of progress and insisting on prior Istanbul and Anchorage frameworks. As of mid-July, the Kremlin stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations amid continued strikes and divergent positions on neutrality and postwar arrangements. These unresolved political and military dynamics continue to shape trader assessments of near-term ceasefire probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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