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icon for Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
Политика·Россия

Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?

icon for Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
Политика·Россия

Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?

$7,652,904 Объем

31 окт. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$7,652,904 Объем

Polymarket

31 октября

$1,661,161 Объем

8%

30 ноября

$4,486 Объем

12%

31 декабря

$2,629,451 Объем

24%

31 января 2027 года

$21,335 Объем

34%

28 февраля 2027 года

$3,547 Объем

37%

31 марта 2027 года

$70,926 Объем

40%

30 апреля 2027 года

$608 Объем

45%

31 мая 2027 года

$1,560 Объем

53%

30 июня 2027 года

$126,586 Объем

56%

31 июля 2027 года

$1,156 Объем

58%

31 августа 2027 года

$148 Объем

62%

30 сентября 2027 года

$708 Объем

63%

31 октября 2027 года

$2,973 Объем

65%

30 ноября 2027 года

$803 Объем

66%

31 декабря 2027 года

$3,949 Объем

70%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic engagement has driven recent momentum for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow on September 5 and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on September 6. Both sides have signaled openness to resuming trilateral negotiations potentially in October, focusing initially on de-escalation steps such as limiting strikes on energy infrastructure and ensuring Black Sea navigation. Persistent barriers include Russia's insistence on territorial concessions in Donetsk and other regions, which Ukraine has rejected without security guarantees. Ongoing airstrikes continue on both sides amid preparations for winter, while earlier 2026 talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges without broader progress. Scheduled events include possible October meetings and high-level diplomacy around the UN General Assembly.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$7,652,904
Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic engagement has driven recent momentum for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow on September 5 and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on September 6. Both sides have signaled openness to resuming trilateral negotiations potentially in October, focusing initially on de-escalation steps such as limiting strikes on energy infrastructure and ensuring Black Sea navigation. Persistent barriers include Russia's insistence on territorial concessions in Donetsk and other regions, which Ukraine has rejected without security guarantees. Ongoing airstrikes continue on both sides amid preparations for winter, while earlier 2026 talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges without broader progress. Scheduled events include possible October meetings and high-level diplomacy around the UN General Assembly.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$7,652,904
Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Связанные

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 18 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря 2027 года» с 70%, за ним следует «30 ноября 2027 года» с 66%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 70¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 70%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $7.7 million с момента запуска рынка May 12, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?», просмотри 18 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?» — «31 декабря 2027 года» с 70%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 70%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30 ноября 2027 года» с 66%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.