Russia faces mounting pressure to replenish forces amid high monthly casualties exceeding voluntary contract recruitment rates, which have declined notably in 2026. Ukrainian President Zelensky cited intelligence indicating plans for a post-election call-up of around 300,000 after the September 18–20 State Duma vote, with potential further rounds. Russian authorities have conducted nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including logistics planning in regions like Kaliningrad, while independent reports document coercive tactics to secure contracts across at least 17 regions. Officials including the UN envoy and former President Medvedev have denied imminent mass mobilization, though they left room for post-election decisions. These dynamics, alongside border outflows and legislative measures easing recruitment, shape trader assessments of announcement timing and scope.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОбъявит ли Россия новую принудительную мобилизацию по…?
Объявит ли Россия новую принудительную мобилизацию по…?
НОВОЕ
$35,154 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
8%
31 октября
30%
31 декабря
40%
$35,154 Объем
30 сентября
$28,766 Объем
8%
31 октября
$2,727 Объем
30%
31 декабря
$3,661 Объем
40%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.Russia faces mounting pressure to replenish forces amid high monthly casualties exceeding voluntary contract recruitment rates, which have declined notably in 2026. Ukrainian President Zelensky cited intelligence indicating plans for a post-election call-up of around 300,000 after the September 18–20 State Duma vote, with potential further rounds. Russian authorities have conducted nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including logistics planning in regions like Kaliningrad, while independent reports document coercive tactics to secure contracts across at least 17 regions. Officials including the UN envoy and former President Medvedev have denied imminent mass mobilization, though they left room for post-election decisions. These dynamics, alongside border outflows and legislative measures easing recruitment, shape trader assessments of announcement timing and scope.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
Открытие рынка: Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$35,154Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.Russia faces mounting pressure to replenish forces amid high monthly casualties exceeding voluntary contract recruitment rates, which have declined notably in 2026. Ukrainian President Zelensky cited intelligence indicating plans for a post-election call-up of around 300,000 after the September 18–20 State Duma vote, with potential further rounds. Russian authorities have conducted nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including logistics planning in regions like Kaliningrad, while independent reports document coercive tactics to secure contracts across at least 17 regions. Officials including the UN envoy and former President Medvedev have denied imminent mass mobilization, though they left room for post-election decisions. These dynamics, alongside border outflows and legislative measures easing recruitment, shape trader assessments of announcement timing and scope.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
Объем
$35,154Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia faces mounting pressure to replenish forces amid high monthly casualties exceeding voluntary contract recruitment rates, which have declined notably in 2026. Ukrainian President Zelensky cited intelligence indicating plans for a post-election call-up of around 300,000 after the September 18–20 State Duma vote, with potential further rounds. Russian authorities have conducted nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including logistics planning in regions like Kaliningrad, while independent reports document coercive tactics to secure contracts across at least 17 regions. Officials including the UN envoy and former President Medvedev have denied imminent mass mobilization, though they left room for post-election decisions. These dynamics, alongside border outflows and legislative measures easing recruitment, shape trader assessments of announcement timing and scope.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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