Russia's potential resumption of nuclear testing remains a flashpoint amid U.S.-Russia arms control breakdowns, following President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare proposals in response to perceived U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No verified nuclear detonations have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests alongside China as recently as February 2026. Recent escalations include mid-April NOTAMs signaling possible RS-28 Sarmat ICBM tests near the Kazakhstan border and nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars drills in Siberia, alongside Tu-22M3 bomber patrols over the Baltic Sea, all tied to Ukraine war posturing. Traders monitor CTBT seismic networks for confirmation, potential NATO responses, and diplomatic talks that could avert tests before year-end deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$1,344,483 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
12%
$1,344,483 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$5,995 Объем
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
$1,737 Объем
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
$12,179 Объем
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's potential resumption of nuclear testing remains a flashpoint amid U.S.-Russia arms control breakdowns, following President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare proposals in response to perceived U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No verified nuclear detonations have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests alongside China as recently as February 2026. Recent escalations include mid-April NOTAMs signaling possible RS-28 Sarmat ICBM tests near the Kazakhstan border and nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars drills in Siberia, alongside Tu-22M3 bomber patrols over the Baltic Sea, all tied to Ukraine war posturing. Traders monitor CTBT seismic networks for confirmation, potential NATO responses, and diplomatic talks that could avert tests before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Объем
$1,344,483Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's potential resumption of nuclear testing remains a flashpoint amid U.S.-Russia arms control breakdowns, following President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare proposals in response to perceived U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No verified nuclear detonations have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests alongside China as recently as February 2026. Recent escalations include mid-April NOTAMs signaling possible RS-28 Sarmat ICBM tests near the Kazakhstan border and nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars drills in Siberia, alongside Tu-22M3 bomber patrols over the Baltic Sea, all tied to Ukraine war posturing. Traders monitor CTBT seismic networks for confirmation, potential NATO responses, and diplomatic talks that could avert tests before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,344,483Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's potential resumption of nuclear testing remains a flashpoint amid U.S.-Russia arms control breakdowns, following President Putin's November 2025 order for officials to prepare proposals in response to perceived U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No verified nuclear detonations have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests alongside China as recently as February 2026. Recent escalations include mid-April NOTAMs signaling possible RS-28 Sarmat ICBM tests near the Kazakhstan border and nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars drills in Siberia, alongside Tu-22M3 bomber patrols over the Baltic Sea, all tied to Ukraine war posturing. Traders monitor CTBT seismic networks for confirmation, potential NATO responses, and diplomatic talks that could avert tests before year-end deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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