US diplomatic initiatives in early September 2026, including visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, have revived interest in trilateral talks potentially scheduled for October, yet Russian officials continue to condition any Putin-Zelenskyy meeting on prior expert-level agreements and reject proposals such as a G20 sidelines encounter. Territorial disputes remain central barriers, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian concessions and Kyiv refusing to cede ground without security guarantees. Ongoing military exchanges and Ukrainian long-range strikes underscore the active conflict, while historical patterns show direct leader summits typically follow framework deals rather than precede them. These dynamics shape trader views on the low likelihood of an early handshake.