**Russia's political system has shown resilience against internal challenges throughout 2026, with no verified coup attempt emerging despite earlier rumors.** Putin maintains tight control through balanced security services, loyal elites, and centralized authority, even as approval ratings dipped modestly amid war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes, and economic pressures like fuel issues. Spring 2026 speculation centering on figures such as Sergei Shoigu produced no action and was widely viewed by analysts as unsubstantiated. Recent months have featured continued FSB operations against external threats and domestic stability assessments rating the regime as functional, with no major elite fractures or military unrest reported. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% because structural barriers—historical precedent from the contained 2023 Wagner events, fragmented opposition, and Putin's consolidated power—outweigh visible strains, consistent with the absence of triggering developments in the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено6% вероятность
$128,143 Объем
$128,143 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
6% вероятность
$128,143 Объем
$128,143 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Russia's political system has shown resilience against internal challenges throughout 2026, with no verified coup attempt emerging despite earlier rumors.**
Putin maintains tight control through balanced security services, loyal elites, and centralized authority, even as approval ratings dipped modestly amid war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes, and economic pressures like fuel issues. Spring 2026 speculation centering on figures such as Sergei Shoigu produced no action and was widely viewed by analysts as unsubstantiated. Recent months have featured continued FSB operations against external threats and domestic stability assessments rating the regime as functional, with no major elite fractures or military unrest reported. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% because structural barriers—historical precedent from the contained 2023 Wagner events, fragmented opposition, and Putin's consolidated power—outweigh visible strains, consistent with the absence of triggering developments in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Объем
$128,143Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Russia's political system has shown resilience against internal challenges throughout 2026, with no verified coup attempt emerging despite earlier rumors.**
Putin maintains tight control through balanced security services, loyal elites, and centralized authority, even as approval ratings dipped modestly amid war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes, and economic pressures like fuel issues. Spring 2026 speculation centering on figures such as Sergei Shoigu produced no action and was widely viewed by analysts as unsubstantiated. Recent months have featured continued FSB operations against external threats and domestic stability assessments rating the regime as functional, with no major elite fractures or military unrest reported. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% because structural barriers—historical precedent from the contained 2023 Wagner events, fragmented opposition, and Putin's consolidated power—outweigh visible strains, consistent with the absence of triggering developments in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$128,143Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russia's political system has shown resilience against internal challenges throughout 2026, with no verified coup attempt emerging despite earlier rumors.** Putin maintains tight control through balanced security services, loyal elites, and centralized authority, even as approval ratings dipped modestly amid war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes, and economic pressures like fuel issues. Spring 2026 speculation centering on figures such as Sergei Shoigu produced no action and was widely viewed by analysts as unsubstantiated. Recent months have featured continued FSB operations against external threats and domestic stability assessments rating the regime as functional, with no major elite fractures or military unrest reported. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5% because structural barriers—historical precedent from the contained 2023 Wagner events, fragmented opposition, and Putin's consolidated power—outweigh visible strains, consistent with the absence of triggering developments in the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы