Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened scrutiny of internal power dynamics and regime stability. Hardliner accusations in July of a potential coup plot involving figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and others against the new leadership emerged amid disputes over the April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and renewed July clashes tied to control of the Strait of Hormuz. Military reorganizations in August, including mergers of command structures and senior IRGC appointments, reflect efforts to consolidate control following external strikes and proxy coordination. Trader sentiment on coup attempt probabilities centers on these factional rivalries, economic pressures fueling domestic unrest, and external regime-change signals from the United States and Israel, though no confirmed attempt has materialized. Scheduled diplomatic talks on maritime access and internal security adjustments could influence near-term developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,121,915 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
9%
$2,121,915 Объем
31 декабря
$80,690 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened scrutiny of internal power dynamics and regime stability. Hardliner accusations in July of a potential coup plot involving figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and others against the new leadership emerged amid disputes over the April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and renewed July clashes tied to control of the Strait of Hormuz. Military reorganizations in August, including mergers of command structures and senior IRGC appointments, reflect efforts to consolidate control following external strikes and proxy coordination. Trader sentiment on coup attempt probabilities centers on these factional rivalries, economic pressures fueling domestic unrest, and external regime-change signals from the United States and Israel, though no confirmed attempt has materialized. Scheduled diplomatic talks on maritime access and internal security adjustments could influence near-term developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Объем
$2,121,915Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened scrutiny of internal power dynamics and regime stability. Hardliner accusations in July of a potential coup plot involving figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and others against the new leadership emerged amid disputes over the April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and renewed July clashes tied to control of the Strait of Hormuz. Military reorganizations in August, including mergers of command structures and senior IRGC appointments, reflect efforts to consolidate control following external strikes and proxy coordination. Trader sentiment on coup attempt probabilities centers on these factional rivalries, economic pressures fueling domestic unrest, and external regime-change signals from the United States and Israel, though no confirmed attempt has materialized. Scheduled diplomatic talks on maritime access and internal security adjustments could influence near-term developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,121,915Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened scrutiny of internal power dynamics and regime stability. Hardliner accusations in July of a potential coup plot involving figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and others against the new leadership emerged amid disputes over the April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and renewed July clashes tied to control of the Strait of Hormuz. Military reorganizations in August, including mergers of command structures and senior IRGC appointments, reflect efforts to consolidate control following external strikes and proxy coordination. Trader sentiment on coup attempt probabilities centers on these factional rivalries, economic pressures fueling domestic unrest, and external regime-change signals from the United States and Israel, though no confirmed attempt has materialized. Scheduled diplomatic talks on maritime access and internal security adjustments could influence near-term developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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