Internal power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and the subsequent election of Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled warnings of factional maneuvering, with hardliners publicly accusing figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of coup plotting amid post-war rifts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains significant influence after pledging allegiance to the new leadership, while US-Israel military pressure, ceasefire negotiations, and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz create external stress on regime stability. Trader consensus reflects limited evidence of an imminent coordinated attempt, though scheduled diplomatic deadlines and any escalation in internal dissent or protests could shift assessments before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,122,471 Объем
31 декабря
9%
$2,122,471 Объем
31 декабря
9%
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and the subsequent election of Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled warnings of factional maneuvering, with hardliners publicly accusing figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of coup plotting amid post-war rifts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains significant influence after pledging allegiance to the new leadership, while US-Israel military pressure, ceasefire negotiations, and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz create external stress on regime stability. Trader consensus reflects limited evidence of an imminent coordinated attempt, though scheduled diplomatic deadlines and any escalation in internal dissent or protests could shift assessments before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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