Ukraine's political environment in mid-2026 shows no credible signs of an imminent coup attempt, aligning with the low trader-implied probability of roughly 7-8% for such an event by December 31. Wartime martial law has postponed elections, consolidating power under President Zelenskyy while security services like the SBU have previously disrupted pro-Russian plots, most notably in 2024. Recent polling indicates Zelenskyy's approval holds steady near 32%, ahead of potential rivals such as former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, amid ongoing but stalled U.S.-mediated peace efforts with Russia that include temporary ceasefires and territorial talks. Protests over anticorruption legislation occurred in 2025 without escalating into broader instability. Traders appear to price in continued institutional resilience, military focus on external threats, and the absence of organized domestic opposition capable of mounting a challenge before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$169,153 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
7%
$169,153 Объем
31 декабря
$151,317 Объем
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine's political environment in mid-2026 shows no credible signs of an imminent coup attempt, aligning with the low trader-implied probability of roughly 7-8% for such an event by December 31. Wartime martial law has postponed elections, consolidating power under President Zelenskyy while security services like the SBU have previously disrupted pro-Russian plots, most notably in 2024. Recent polling indicates Zelenskyy's approval holds steady near 32%, ahead of potential rivals such as former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, amid ongoing but stalled U.S.-mediated peace efforts with Russia that include temporary ceasefires and territorial talks. Protests over anticorruption legislation occurred in 2025 without escalating into broader instability. Traders appear to price in continued institutional resilience, military focus on external threats, and the absence of organized domestic opposition capable of mounting a challenge before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Объем
$169,153Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine's political environment in mid-2026 shows no credible signs of an imminent coup attempt, aligning with the low trader-implied probability of roughly 7-8% for such an event by December 31. Wartime martial law has postponed elections, consolidating power under President Zelenskyy while security services like the SBU have previously disrupted pro-Russian plots, most notably in 2024. Recent polling indicates Zelenskyy's approval holds steady near 32%, ahead of potential rivals such as former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, amid ongoing but stalled U.S.-mediated peace efforts with Russia that include temporary ceasefires and territorial talks. Protests over anticorruption legislation occurred in 2025 without escalating into broader instability. Traders appear to price in continued institutional resilience, military focus on external threats, and the absence of organized domestic opposition capable of mounting a challenge before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$169,153Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's political environment in mid-2026 shows no credible signs of an imminent coup attempt, aligning with the low trader-implied probability of roughly 7-8% for such an event by December 31. Wartime martial law has postponed elections, consolidating power under President Zelenskyy while security services like the SBU have previously disrupted pro-Russian plots, most notably in 2024. Recent polling indicates Zelenskyy's approval holds steady near 32%, ahead of potential rivals such as former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, amid ongoing but stalled U.S.-mediated peace efforts with Russia that include temporary ceasefires and territorial talks. Protests over anticorruption legislation occurred in 2025 without escalating into broader instability. Traders appear to price in continued institutional resilience, military focus on external threats, and the absence of organized domestic opposition capable of mounting a challenge before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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