Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive military purges, including the January 2026 investigations into senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, underpins the market’s strong consensus against a coup attempt. These actions have removed dozens of senior officers and left the leadership structure tightly aligned with Xi, reducing the institutional space for organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army or broader party elite. Analysts note that past coup rumors have consistently lacked verification, while ongoing discipline inspections and preparations for the 2027 party congress reinforce centralized control. Even so, a sudden leadership health event, severe economic downturn, or unexpected fracture at an upcoming plenum could still introduce volatility before the 2027 deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
$155,388 Объем
$155,388 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$155,388 Объем
$155,388 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive military purges, including the January 2026 investigations into senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, underpins the market’s strong consensus against a coup attempt. These actions have removed dozens of senior officers and left the leadership structure tightly aligned with Xi, reducing the institutional space for organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army or broader party elite. Analysts note that past coup rumors have consistently lacked verification, while ongoing discipline inspections and preparations for the 2027 party congress reinforce centralized control. Even so, a sudden leadership health event, severe economic downturn, or unexpected fracture at an upcoming plenum could still introduce volatility before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$155,388Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive military purges, including the January 2026 investigations into senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, underpins the market’s strong consensus against a coup attempt. These actions have removed dozens of senior officers and left the leadership structure tightly aligned with Xi, reducing the institutional space for organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army or broader party elite. Analysts note that past coup rumors have consistently lacked verification, while ongoing discipline inspections and preparations for the 2027 party congress reinforce centralized control. Even so, a sudden leadership health event, severe economic downturn, or unexpected fracture at an upcoming plenum could still introduce volatility before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$155,388Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive military purges, including the January 2026 investigations into senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, underpins the market’s strong consensus against a coup attempt. These actions have removed dozens of senior officers and left the leadership structure tightly aligned with Xi, reducing the institutional space for organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army or broader party elite. Analysts note that past coup rumors have consistently lacked verification, while ongoing discipline inspections and preparations for the 2027 party congress reinforce centralized control. Even so, a sudden leadership health event, severe economic downturn, or unexpected fracture at an upcoming plenum could still introduce volatility before the 2027 deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы