Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins traders’ 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. Successive military leadership changes and anti-corruption investigations have reinforced centralized control, while repeated past rumors of instability have consistently lacked substantiation from official channels. The opaque nature of elite politics occasionally fuels speculation, yet verifiable developments point to continuity rather than factional rupture. Ahead of the 21st Party Congress, scheduled leadership turnover remains bounded by established norms and Xi’s position. Realistic shifts could still arise from undisclosed health developments, abrupt diplomatic crises, or unforeseen elite realignments, though such triggers lack current indicators.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$135,961 Объем
$135,961 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$135,961 Объем
$135,961 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins traders’ 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. Successive military leadership changes and anti-corruption investigations have reinforced centralized control, while repeated past rumors of instability have consistently lacked substantiation from official channels. The opaque nature of elite politics occasionally fuels speculation, yet verifiable developments point to continuity rather than factional rupture. Ahead of the 21st Party Congress, scheduled leadership turnover remains bounded by established norms and Xi’s position. Realistic shifts could still arise from undisclosed health developments, abrupt diplomatic crises, or unforeseen elite realignments, though such triggers lack current indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$135,961Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins traders’ 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. Successive military leadership changes and anti-corruption investigations have reinforced centralized control, while repeated past rumors of instability have consistently lacked substantiation from official channels. The opaque nature of elite politics occasionally fuels speculation, yet verifiable developments point to continuity rather than factional rupture. Ahead of the 21st Party Congress, scheduled leadership turnover remains bounded by established norms and Xi’s position. Realistic shifts could still arise from undisclosed health developments, abrupt diplomatic crises, or unforeseen elite realignments, though such triggers lack current indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$135,961Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins traders’ 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. Successive military leadership changes and anti-corruption investigations have reinforced centralized control, while repeated past rumors of instability have consistently lacked substantiation from official channels. The opaque nature of elite politics occasionally fuels speculation, yet verifiable developments point to continuity rather than factional rupture. Ahead of the 21st Party Congress, scheduled leadership turnover remains bounded by established norms and Xi’s position. Realistic shifts could still arise from undisclosed health developments, abrupt diplomatic crises, or unforeseen elite realignments, though such triggers lack current indicators.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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