Ongoing war with Russia, coupled with explicit opposition from key NATO members including the United States, remains the dominant barrier to Ukrainian accession before 2027. Recent NATO summits have delivered substantial military aid pledges and recognized Ukraine’s emerging role as a security contributor, yet they have avoided any timeline or formal path to membership, emphasizing interoperability reforms and sustained assistance instead. Statements from Ukrainian officials and former commanders highlight gaps in standards and alliance doctrines, while U.S. policy has ruled out near-term entry. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no accession reflects these structural hurdles. Late developments such as a swift negotiated settlement or sudden allied consensus could theoretically alter the outlook, though both remain remote within the resolution window.