Ongoing deadlock over territorial concessions and security guarantees continues to block any path to a binding Ukraine-Russia peace agreement that would trigger a nationwide referendum. Martial law bars such votes, Ukrainian constitutional requirements mandate public approval for any territorial changes, and polling shows sustained majority resistance to major concessions. Recent U.S.-mediated contacts and trilateral discussions have produced only limited ceasefires and prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes, while Russia maintains demands for recognition of current lines of control. With months remaining before the 2027 deadline, these barriers sustain the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A rapid ceasefire enabling a secure referendum process before year-end remains the primary scenario that could still shift odds.