Traders assign a 96% implied probability that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026 due to the continued absence of large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious staging, or command signals for a cross-strait offensive. Beijing has sustained gray-zone air and naval activity while prioritizing diplomatic outreach and stable high-level U.S.-China contacts, including planned summits. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises, record reservist mobilization, and asymmetric defense investments, alongside ongoing U.S. arms support, have reinforced deterrence without triggering acute escalation. Late-year miscalculations during drills, shifts in leadership signaling, or external shocks remain the primary variables that could still alter the trajectory before year-end.