Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the narrow remaining window and the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization or crossing of clear red lines by Beijing. China continues gray-zone coercion through near-daily People’s Liberation Army aircraft and naval activity around the island, joint combat readiness patrols, and recent coast guard operations east of Taiwan, while completing infrastructure projects such as the Antelope Reef facility in the South China Sea. Taiwan has responded with expanded Han Kuang war games, immediate combat readiness drills, live-fire drone exercises, record defense budgets, and whole-of-society civil defense preparations, reflecting sustained but non-kinetic pressure. Beijing’s strategic preference for lower-cost unification paths and the substantial risks of direct conflict with potential U.S. involvement further support the current consensus. Late developments such as an abrupt Taiwanese sovereignty declaration, major shifts in U.S. policy, or unforeseen internal Chinese decisions could still alter the outlook before year-end.