Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timetable and views 2027 primarily as a capability benchmark rather than an invasion trigger. Recent PLA activities through September 2026 emphasize gray-zone pressure, including expanded air and sea patrols, joint blockade drills, and coast guard operations east of Taiwan, alongside carrier transits and live-fire exercises. Taiwan’s defense reports note these steps aim at encirclement and control but highlight persistent gaps in amphibious assault readiness. Lower sortie volumes in August and ongoing diplomatic channels, including potential Xi-Trump engagement, further align with the market’s expectation that full-scale invasion preparations remain absent in the near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
$3,221,187 Объем
$3,221,187 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
12% вероятность
$3,221,187 Объем
$3,221,187 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timetable and views 2027 primarily as a capability benchmark rather than an invasion trigger. Recent PLA activities through September 2026 emphasize gray-zone pressure, including expanded air and sea patrols, joint blockade drills, and coast guard operations east of Taiwan, alongside carrier transits and live-fire exercises. Taiwan’s defense reports note these steps aim at encirclement and control but highlight persistent gaps in amphibious assault readiness. Lower sortie volumes in August and ongoing diplomatic channels, including potential Xi-Trump engagement, further align with the market’s expectation that full-scale invasion preparations remain absent in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$3,221,187Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timetable and views 2027 primarily as a capability benchmark rather than an invasion trigger. Recent PLA activities through September 2026 emphasize gray-zone pressure, including expanded air and sea patrols, joint blockade drills, and coast guard operations east of Taiwan, alongside carrier transits and live-fire exercises. Taiwan’s defense reports note these steps aim at encirclement and control but highlight persistent gaps in amphibious assault readiness. Lower sortie volumes in August and ongoing diplomatic channels, including potential Xi-Trump engagement, further align with the market’s expectation that full-scale invasion preparations remain absent in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$3,221,187Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timetable and views 2027 primarily as a capability benchmark rather than an invasion trigger. Recent PLA activities through September 2026 emphasize gray-zone pressure, including expanded air and sea patrols, joint blockade drills, and coast guard operations east of Taiwan, alongside carrier transits and live-fire exercises. Taiwan’s defense reports note these steps aim at encirclement and control but highlight persistent gaps in amphibious assault readiness. Lower sortie volumes in August and ongoing diplomatic channels, including potential Xi-Trump engagement, further align with the market’s expectation that full-scale invasion preparations remain absent in the near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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