US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВоенное столкновение США и Китая до 2027 года?
Военное столкновение США и Китая до 2027 года?
Да
$169,906 Объем
$169,906 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$169,906 Объем
$169,906 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Объем
$169,906Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$169,906Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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