Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby coastal positions have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, halving daily transits to around 15 crossings amid targeted strikes on Saudi-linked tankers. This follows Saudi Arabia’s redirection of crude exports via Yanbu after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with loadings through the strait already down roughly 50% since late July attacks. War-risk insurance premiums have risen sharply, prompting many operators to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope despite added voyage times and fuel costs, while Brent crude has climbed above $100 per barrel on supply concerns. Limited non-Saudi transits continue under Houthi assurances, but the corridor remains operationally hazardous with elevated AIS dark activity and selective avoidance. Key near-term catalysts include further territorial moves, Saudi or coalition responses, and weekly Kpler or IMF PortWatch transit data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 судов транзитом Баб-эль-Мандеб в любую дату до..?
0 судов транзитом Баб-эль-Мандеб в любую дату до..?
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
15%
31 декабря
41%
$24 Объем
30 сентября
$24 Объем
15%
31 декабря
$0 Объем
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby coastal positions have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, halving daily transits to around 15 crossings amid targeted strikes on Saudi-linked tankers. This follows Saudi Arabia’s redirection of crude exports via Yanbu after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with loadings through the strait already down roughly 50% since late July attacks. War-risk insurance premiums have risen sharply, prompting many operators to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope despite added voyage times and fuel costs, while Brent crude has climbed above $100 per barrel on supply concerns. Limited non-Saudi transits continue under Houthi assurances, but the corridor remains operationally hazardous with elevated AIS dark activity and selective avoidance. Key near-term catalysts include further territorial moves, Saudi or coalition responses, and weekly Kpler or IMF PortWatch transit data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$24Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby coastal positions have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, halving daily transits to around 15 crossings amid targeted strikes on Saudi-linked tankers. This follows Saudi Arabia’s redirection of crude exports via Yanbu after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with loadings through the strait already down roughly 50% since late July attacks. War-risk insurance premiums have risen sharply, prompting many operators to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope despite added voyage times and fuel costs, while Brent crude has climbed above $100 per barrel on supply concerns. Limited non-Saudi transits continue under Houthi assurances, but the corridor remains operationally hazardous with elevated AIS dark activity and selective avoidance. Key near-term catalysts include further territorial moves, Saudi or coalition responses, and weekly Kpler or IMF PortWatch transit data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$24Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby coastal positions have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, halving daily transits to around 15 crossings amid targeted strikes on Saudi-linked tankers. This follows Saudi Arabia’s redirection of crude exports via Yanbu after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with loadings through the strait already down roughly 50% since late July attacks. War-risk insurance premiums have risen sharply, prompting many operators to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope despite added voyage times and fuel costs, while Brent crude has climbed above $100 per barrel on supply concerns. Limited non-Saudi transits continue under Houthi assurances, but the corridor remains operationally hazardous with elevated AIS dark activity and selective avoidance. Key near-term catalysts include further territorial moves, Saudi or coalition responses, and weekly Kpler or IMF PortWatch transit data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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