China’s military modernization and gray-zone pressure around Taiwan continue, with record coast guard and research vessel deployments, joint blockade exercises, and expanded patrols east of the island through mid-2026. However, senior PLA purges have degraded command-and-control readiness for a complex amphibious campaign, while Taiwanese and U.S. assessments indicate Beijing lacks sufficient landing and sustainment capacity for a successful invasion before the June 2027 deadline. Beijing favors coercive measures—maritime assertions, cyber activity, and political isolation—over immediate kinetic action due to high economic and military costs. These factors underpin the 93% trader consensus on “No,” reflecting skin-in-the-game views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely within the resolution window absent major unforeseen escalation.