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Геополитика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Market icon
Геополитика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

июн. 30

сент. 30

дек. 31

июн. 30, 2027

июн. 30

сент. 30

дек. 31

июн. 30, 2027

14% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
14% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded China likely will not invade Taiwan in 2027 and prefers coercion over military action, anchoring trader consensus at 86.5% for "No" by June 30. This assessment, echoed in ODNI reports, highlights Beijing's ongoing PLA purges, economic strains, and logistical hurdles like amphibious landing challenges, reducing perceived invasion feasibility. Recent diplomacy reinforces de-escalation: President Xi Jinping invited Taiwan's Kuomintang opposition leader for "peaceful development" talks in late March. Taiwan extended its annual war games amid budget delays for U.S. arms, while routine Chinese aircraft patrols continue without invasion signals. Upcoming U.S. arms deliveries and potential Trump-Xi summits could further shape odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$2,849
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded China likely will not invade Taiwan in 2027 and prefers coercion over military action, anchoring trader consensus at 86.5% for "No" by June 30. This assessment, echoed in ODNI reports, highlights Beijing's ongoing PLA purges, economic strains, and logistical hurdles like amphibious landing challenges, reducing perceived invasion feasibility. Recent diplomacy reinforces de-escalation: President Xi Jinping invited Taiwan's Kuomintang opposition leader for "peaceful development" talks in late March. Taiwan extended its annual war games amid budget delays for U.S. arms, while routine Chinese aircraft patrols continue without invasion signals. Upcoming U.S. arms deliveries and potential Trump-Xi summits could further shape odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$2,849
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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