Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, impairing enrichment capacity and burying much of Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and the agency's June 2026 report noted little change in verified activities amid ongoing limited monitoring. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran's timeline for weapons development has not advanced substantially, with no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or test preparations. Diplomatic talks continue alongside demands for dismantlement and stockpile verification, while seismic events have been attributed to natural causes rather than explosions. These factors shape trader consensus on the low likelihood of a test before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$209,836 Объем
$209,836 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$209,836 Объем
$209,836 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, impairing enrichment capacity and burying much of Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and the agency's June 2026 report noted little change in verified activities amid ongoing limited monitoring. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran's timeline for weapons development has not advanced substantially, with no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or test preparations. Diplomatic talks continue alongside demands for dismantlement and stockpile verification, while seismic events have been attributed to natural causes rather than explosions. These factors shape trader consensus on the low likelihood of a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$209,836Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, impairing enrichment capacity and burying much of Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and the agency's June 2026 report noted little change in verified activities amid ongoing limited monitoring. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran's timeline for weapons development has not advanced substantially, with no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or test preparations. Diplomatic talks continue alongside demands for dismantlement and stockpile verification, while seismic events have been attributed to natural causes rather than explosions. These factors shape trader consensus on the low likelihood of a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$209,836Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, impairing enrichment capacity and burying much of Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and the agency's June 2026 report noted little change in verified activities amid ongoing limited monitoring. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran's timeline for weapons development has not advanced substantially, with no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or test preparations. Diplomatic talks continue alongside demands for dismantlement and stockpile verification, while seismic events have been attributed to natural causes rather than explosions. These factors shape trader consensus on the low likelihood of a test before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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