Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering much of its enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting verified weaponization work. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 confirm limited inspector access and no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or testing preparations. Parallel U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, including rounds in Geneva and Oman, center on verification measures and enrichment caps, creating interim restraints. These developments sustain trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% "No" odds, as a nuclear test before 2027 would require rebuilding degraded infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations and monitoring.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$229,271 Объем
$229,271 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$229,271 Объем
$229,271 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering much of its enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting verified weaponization work. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 confirm limited inspector access and no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or testing preparations. Parallel U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, including rounds in Geneva and Oman, center on verification measures and enrichment caps, creating interim restraints. These developments sustain trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% "No" odds, as a nuclear test before 2027 would require rebuilding degraded infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations and monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$229,271Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering much of its enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting verified weaponization work. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 confirm limited inspector access and no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or testing preparations. Parallel U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, including rounds in Geneva and Oman, center on verification measures and enrichment caps, creating interim restraints. These developments sustain trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% "No" odds, as a nuclear test before 2027 would require rebuilding degraded infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations and monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$229,271Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering much of its enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting verified weaponization work. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 confirm limited inspector access and no confirmed resumption of high-level enrichment or testing preparations. Parallel U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, including rounds in Geneva and Oman, center on verification measures and enrichment caps, creating interim restraints. These developments sustain trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% "No" odds, as a nuclear test before 2027 would require rebuilding degraded infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations and monitoring.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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