Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weapons timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirmed Iran's commitment not to develop or procure nuclear weapons, while Iranian officials stated that remaining highly enriched uranium remains buried under rubble with no plans for recovery and no resumption of enrichment activities. Ongoing diplomatic talks have emphasized demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers, further constraining near-term breakout options despite limited reconstruction efforts at secondary sites. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$228,771 Объем
$228,771 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$228,771 Объем
$228,771 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weapons timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirmed Iran's commitment not to develop or procure nuclear weapons, while Iranian officials stated that remaining highly enriched uranium remains buried under rubble with no plans for recovery and no resumption of enrichment activities. Ongoing diplomatic talks have emphasized demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers, further constraining near-term breakout options despite limited reconstruction efforts at secondary sites. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$228,771Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weapons timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirmed Iran's commitment not to develop or procure nuclear weapons, while Iranian officials stated that remaining highly enriched uranium remains buried under rubble with no plans for recovery and no resumption of enrichment activities. Ongoing diplomatic talks have emphasized demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers, further constraining near-term breakout options despite limited reconstruction efforts at secondary sites. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$228,771Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weapons timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly reaffirmed Iran's commitment not to develop or procure nuclear weapons, while Iranian officials stated that remaining highly enriched uranium remains buried under rubble with no plans for recovery and no resumption of enrichment activities. Ongoing diplomatic talks have emphasized demands for facility dismantlement and material transfers, further constraining near-term breakout options despite limited reconstruction efforts at secondary sites. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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