Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, along with associated infrastructure, while killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. IAEA assessments and satellite imagery confirm limited repair progress on nuclear facilities compared with missile sites, with no verified resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization activities since the attacks. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirms Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, and intelligence reports note the absence of structured programs for a testable device. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing monitoring and diplomatic constraints through late 2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$228,771 Объем
$228,771 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$228,771 Объем
$228,771 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, along with associated infrastructure, while killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. IAEA assessments and satellite imagery confirm limited repair progress on nuclear facilities compared with missile sites, with no verified resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization activities since the attacks. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirms Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, and intelligence reports note the absence of structured programs for a testable device. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing monitoring and diplomatic constraints through late 2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$228,771Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, along with associated infrastructure, while killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. IAEA assessments and satellite imagery confirm limited repair progress on nuclear facilities compared with missile sites, with no verified resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization activities since the attacks. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirms Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, and intelligence reports note the absence of structured programs for a testable device. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing monitoring and diplomatic constraints through late 2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$228,771Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, along with associated infrastructure, while killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. IAEA assessments and satellite imagery confirm limited repair progress on nuclear facilities compared with missile sites, with no verified resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization activities since the attacks. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirms Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, and intelligence reports note the absence of structured programs for a testable device. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing monitoring and diplomatic constraints through late 2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы