US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the destruction of Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and damage to the Khondab heavy water facility as detailed in IAEA reports from February and March 2026, have significantly set back Iran's nuclear program, prompting trader consensus at 90% against a test before 2027. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Tehran's April 28 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with nuclear talks deferred to later phases, signal de-escalation amid sanctions and verification challenges. While Iran retains over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—IAEA monitoring shows no confirmed weaponization, with breakout timelines extended by war damage; late diplomatic breakthroughs or regime shifts could still alter odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$185,992 Объем
$185,992 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$185,992 Объем
$185,992 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the destruction of Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and damage to the Khondab heavy water facility as detailed in IAEA reports from February and March 2026, have significantly set back Iran's nuclear program, prompting trader consensus at 90% against a test before 2027. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Tehran's April 28 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with nuclear talks deferred to later phases, signal de-escalation amid sanctions and verification challenges. While Iran retains over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—IAEA monitoring shows no confirmed weaponization, with breakout timelines extended by war damage; late diplomatic breakthroughs or regime shifts could still alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$185,992Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the destruction of Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and damage to the Khondab heavy water facility as detailed in IAEA reports from February and March 2026, have significantly set back Iran's nuclear program, prompting trader consensus at 90% against a test before 2027. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Tehran's April 28 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with nuclear talks deferred to later phases, signal de-escalation amid sanctions and verification challenges. While Iran retains over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—IAEA monitoring shows no confirmed weaponization, with breakout timelines extended by war damage; late diplomatic breakthroughs or regime shifts could still alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$185,992Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the destruction of Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and damage to the Khondab heavy water facility as detailed in IAEA reports from February and March 2026, have significantly set back Iran's nuclear program, prompting trader consensus at 90% against a test before 2027. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Tehran's April 28 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with nuclear talks deferred to later phases, signal de-escalation amid sanctions and verification challenges. While Iran retains over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—IAEA monitoring shows no confirmed weaponization, with breakout timelines extended by war damage; late diplomatic breakthroughs or regime shifts could still alter odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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