U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered Iran's key enrichment facilities largely inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites including Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025, losing continuity of verification, while Iran has not resumed enrichment activities amid ongoing noncompliance concerns that prompted a September 2026 referral to the UN Security Council. These factors, combined with Iran's public stance against nuclear weapons and the absence of weaponization indicators, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Conceivable shifts remain possible through undetected material recovery, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or major regional escalation altering deterrence calculations before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$258,549 Объем
$258,549 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$258,549 Объем
$258,549 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered Iran's key enrichment facilities largely inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites including Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025, losing continuity of verification, while Iran has not resumed enrichment activities amid ongoing noncompliance concerns that prompted a September 2026 referral to the UN Security Council. These factors, combined with Iran's public stance against nuclear weapons and the absence of weaponization indicators, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Conceivable shifts remain possible through undetected material recovery, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or major regional escalation altering deterrence calculations before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$258,549Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered Iran's key enrichment facilities largely inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites including Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025, losing continuity of verification, while Iran has not resumed enrichment activities amid ongoing noncompliance concerns that prompted a September 2026 referral to the UN Security Council. These factors, combined with Iran's public stance against nuclear weapons and the absence of weaponization indicators, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Conceivable shifts remain possible through undetected material recovery, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or major regional escalation altering deterrence calculations before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$258,549Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered Iran's key enrichment facilities largely inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites including Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025, losing continuity of verification, while Iran has not resumed enrichment activities amid ongoing noncompliance concerns that prompted a September 2026 referral to the UN Security Council. These factors, combined with Iran's public stance against nuclear weapons and the absence of weaponization indicators, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Conceivable shifts remain possible through undetected material recovery, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or major regional escalation altering deterrence calculations before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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