US military operations against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz region continue into September 2026 amid disputes over shipping and regional proxies, yet the administration has relied on targeted strikes, blockades, and notifications to Congress rather than seeking a formal declaration of war. Trader consensus prices the probability of congressional passage of such a declaration by year-end near 2 percent, reflecting the constitutional threshold, historical precedent for authorizations for use of military force instead, and political incentives ahead of midterms. Recent comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance emphasize de-escalation timelines and distinguish current actions from full-scale war, while intermittent talks mediated by Qatar and others remain active. Any shift would require sustained escalation or explicit congressional initiative within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
Будут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
$7,815,717 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
2%
$7,815,717 Объем
31 декабря
$843,083 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz region continue into September 2026 amid disputes over shipping and regional proxies, yet the administration has relied on targeted strikes, blockades, and notifications to Congress rather than seeking a formal declaration of war. Trader consensus prices the probability of congressional passage of such a declaration by year-end near 2 percent, reflecting the constitutional threshold, historical precedent for authorizations for use of military force instead, and political incentives ahead of midterms. Recent comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance emphasize de-escalation timelines and distinguish current actions from full-scale war, while intermittent talks mediated by Qatar and others remain active. Any shift would require sustained escalation or explicit congressional initiative within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Объем
$7,815,717Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz region continue into September 2026 amid disputes over shipping and regional proxies, yet the administration has relied on targeted strikes, blockades, and notifications to Congress rather than seeking a formal declaration of war. Trader consensus prices the probability of congressional passage of such a declaration by year-end near 2 percent, reflecting the constitutional threshold, historical precedent for authorizations for use of military force instead, and political incentives ahead of midterms. Recent comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance emphasize de-escalation timelines and distinguish current actions from full-scale war, while intermittent talks mediated by Qatar and others remain active. Any shift would require sustained escalation or explicit congressional initiative within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$7,815,717Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...US military operations against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz region continue into September 2026 amid disputes over shipping and regional proxies, yet the administration has relied on targeted strikes, blockades, and notifications to Congress rather than seeking a formal declaration of war. Trader consensus prices the probability of congressional passage of such a declaration by year-end near 2 percent, reflecting the constitutional threshold, historical precedent for authorizations for use of military force instead, and political incentives ahead of midterms. Recent comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance emphasize de-escalation timelines and distinguish current actions from full-scale war, while intermittent talks mediated by Qatar and others remain active. Any shift would require sustained escalation or explicit congressional initiative within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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