Recent US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted extensive damage to enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving Iran's program largely dormant with key centrifuges and infrastructure inoperable or buried. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm ongoing lack of access to sensitive locations, preventing verification of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile or any resumption of enrichment activities, while noting construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain but no operational weaponization progress. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding has initiated negotiations on stockpile disposition and inspections under IAEA oversight, with statements from both sides affirming no current enrichment. These factors underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to achieve nuclear weapons capability before 2027.