US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow, in June 2025 and early 2026 have severely degraded enrichment capabilities, destroying aboveground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium. IAEA reports from February and April 2026 confirm no verified weaponization activities or diversion, despite lost continuity of knowledge at struck sites, with Director General Rafael Grossi noting the program cannot be fully eliminated but remains suspended amid denied inspections. US intelligence assessments, including DNI Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony, affirm Iran has not resumed structured nuclear weapons work. Ongoing war pressures and rejected Iranian proposals for temporary enrichment halts reinforce trader consensus that a nuclear test before year-end is improbable, though diplomatic breakthroughs or covert reconstitution could shift odds.