Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have rendered most of Iran's declared enrichment facilities inoperable and trapped key stockpiles of highly enriched uranium underground, while the IAEA reports no active enrichment at known sites and restricted inspector access. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, alongside satellite-detected construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores ongoing international scrutiny and Tehran's limited short-term breakout capacity. Traders assign 95.4% probability to no nuclear test before 2027 due to these structural constraints and Iran's NPT commitments. Realistic shifts could still arise from rapid clandestine recovery of buried material, accelerated weaponization at undeclared underground sites, or a policy reversal amid escalating tensions before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$258,465 Объем
$258,465 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$258,465 Объем
$258,465 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have rendered most of Iran's declared enrichment facilities inoperable and trapped key stockpiles of highly enriched uranium underground, while the IAEA reports no active enrichment at known sites and restricted inspector access. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, alongside satellite-detected construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores ongoing international scrutiny and Tehran's limited short-term breakout capacity. Traders assign 95.4% probability to no nuclear test before 2027 due to these structural constraints and Iran's NPT commitments. Realistic shifts could still arise from rapid clandestine recovery of buried material, accelerated weaponization at undeclared underground sites, or a policy reversal amid escalating tensions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$258,465Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have rendered most of Iran's declared enrichment facilities inoperable and trapped key stockpiles of highly enriched uranium underground, while the IAEA reports no active enrichment at known sites and restricted inspector access. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, alongside satellite-detected construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores ongoing international scrutiny and Tehran's limited short-term breakout capacity. Traders assign 95.4% probability to no nuclear test before 2027 due to these structural constraints and Iran's NPT commitments. Realistic shifts could still arise from rapid clandestine recovery of buried material, accelerated weaponization at undeclared underground sites, or a policy reversal amid escalating tensions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$258,465Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have rendered most of Iran's declared enrichment facilities inoperable and trapped key stockpiles of highly enriched uranium underground, while the IAEA reports no active enrichment at known sites and restricted inspector access. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, alongside satellite-detected construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores ongoing international scrutiny and Tehran's limited short-term breakout capacity. Traders assign 95.4% probability to no nuclear test before 2027 due to these structural constraints and Iran's NPT commitments. Realistic shifts could still arise from rapid clandestine recovery of buried material, accelerated weaponization at undeclared underground sites, or a policy reversal amid escalating tensions before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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