Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible while halting active enrichment. IAEA reports confirm ongoing inspector access restrictions, unverifiable stockpiles, and a September 2026 referral to the UN Security Council over safeguards noncompliance, alongside satellite evidence of new underground construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. These factors, combined with the brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, underpin trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear weapon. Shifts remain possible through undetected recovery of existing highly enriched uranium, rapid covert weaponization at hardened sites, or sudden policy changes enabling breakout.