Trader consensus shows low implied probability for Iran directly targeting commercial shipping, driven by Tehran's restraint amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions after October missile strikes and retaliatory airstrikes. Iran favors proxy actions via Houthis, who continue Red Sea attacks disrupting global trade routes like Bab el-Mandeb, over riskier Strait of Hormuz interference that could spike oil prices and draw US intervention. Recent seizures, such as the April MSC Aries tanker, highlight capabilities but no repeat amid nuclear talks and sanctions pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Iranian responses to Israel, UN Security Council sessions, and US election outcomes shaping regional deterrence.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
April 1
24%
April 2
38%
April 3
40%
April 4
35%
April 5
29%
April 6
26%
April 7
39%
April 8
47%
April 9
47%
April 10
39%
$2 Объем
April 1
24%
April 2
38%
April 3
40%
April 4
35%
April 5
29%
April 6
26%
April 7
39%
April 8
47%
April 9
47%
April 10
39%
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus shows low implied probability for Iran directly targeting commercial shipping, driven by Tehran's restraint amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions after October missile strikes and retaliatory airstrikes. Iran favors proxy actions via Houthis, who continue Red Sea attacks disrupting global trade routes like Bab el-Mandeb, over riskier Strait of Hormuz interference that could spike oil prices and draw US intervention. Recent seizures, such as the April MSC Aries tanker, highlight capabilities but no repeat amid nuclear talks and sanctions pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Iranian responses to Israel, UN Security Council sessions, and US election outcomes shaping regional deterrence.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы