Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to Miami's July 14 overnight low falling in the 80–87 °F range because National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance shows a persistent warm, humid air mass with forecast lows near 80–82 °F. Typical July climatology features average lows of 77–78 °F, yet recent model runs reflect elevated minimum temperatures driven by high dew points, limited nocturnal radiational cooling, and light southeast winds. Minor differences among leading bins stem from uncertainty in cloud cover, scattered shower timing, and sea-breeze effects that can shift the final low by a degree or two. New forecast updates from NOAA and local NWS offices tonight will provide the next resolution-relevant data.