Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance shows a low near 72°F for New York City on August 20, with model consensus favoring mild overnight conditions under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Warmer-than-average August temperatures, driven by persistent high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, have kept overnight minima elevated compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 67°F. Traders assign the highest implied probability to the 72–73°F bin because ensemble runs cluster there, while slight model spread on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing accounts for the near-even odds between the 70–71°F and 74–75°F outcomes. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will refine the final reading used for market resolution.