Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.8% implied probability to a 10°C lowest temperature in Seoul on April 15, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and ensemble agreement from ECMWF and GFS models, which project an early-morning minimum near 10°C under hazy skies, light winds, and moderate humidity around 56% that curbs excessive radiational cooling. Observations at 0600 local time recorded 9.0°C with dew point at 6°C, aligning closely with guidance amid urban heat island influences and April climatological norms of 8–11°C lows. This positioning reflects stable high-pressure conditions persisting over the past 48 hours. Realistic challenges include drier air or clearer overnight skies enabling a dip to 9°C, though low likelihood as cloudiness and smog provide insulation; final KMA station data expected by evening will resolve the market.