Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, driven by strong cohesion among core members like Saudi Arabia following the UAE's announced withdrawal effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings on April 5 reaffirmed output adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—and commitments to market stability despite Middle East tensions disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi-led efforts to manage global supply, backed by ongoing conformity reviews among eight key producers, underpin this conviction, with group-wide quotas held steady into 2026. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate quota disputes erode discipline, potentially fracturing the cartel's 38% share of global crude supply. Next ministerial meeting on April 4 could signal further unity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, driven by strong cohesion among core members like Saudi Arabia following the UAE's announced withdrawal effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings on April 5 reaffirmed output adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—and commitments to market stability despite Middle East tensions disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi-led efforts to manage global supply, backed by ongoing conformity reviews among eight key producers, underpin this conviction, with group-wide quotas held steady into 2026. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate quota disputes erode discipline, potentially fracturing the cartel's 38% share of global crude supply. Next ministerial meeting on April 4 could signal further unity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Объем
$1,880Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, driven by strong cohesion among core members like Saudi Arabia following the UAE's announced withdrawal effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings on April 5 reaffirmed output adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—and commitments to market stability despite Middle East tensions disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi-led efforts to manage global supply, backed by ongoing conformity reviews among eight key producers, underpin this conviction, with group-wide quotas held steady into 2026. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate quota disputes erode discipline, potentially fracturing the cartel's 38% share of global crude supply. Next ministerial meeting on April 4 could signal further unity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,880Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, driven by strong cohesion among core members like Saudi Arabia following the UAE's announced withdrawal effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings on April 5 reaffirmed output adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—and commitments to market stability despite Middle East tensions disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi-led efforts to manage global supply, backed by ongoing conformity reviews among eight key producers, underpin this conviction, with group-wide quotas held steady into 2026. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate quota disputes erode discipline, potentially fracturing the cartel's 38% share of global crude supply. Next ministerial meeting on April 4 could signal further unity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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