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Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

icon for Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

37% вероятность
Polymarket

$177,334 Объем

37% вероятность
Polymarket

$177,334 Объем

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$177,334
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$177,334
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 37% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 37¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 37%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $177.3K с момента запуска рынка Apr 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?» составляет 37% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 37%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.