Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
37% вероятность
$177,334 Объем
$177,334 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
37% вероятность
$177,334 Объем
$177,334 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Объем
$177,334Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$177,334Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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