**Traders assign a 63.5% probability that no additional country will exit OPEC in 2026, reflecting the absence of firm new withdrawal signals since the UAE’s departure effective May 1.** The UAE’s exit followed years of quota disputes tied to its expanded production capacity and was accelerated by disruptions from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions; it left the core group at 11 members. Iraq briefly floated quota-related exit considerations in June but quickly clarified it has no plans to withdraw and intends to remain while seeking higher limits. Venezuela has drawn analyst speculation about a possible future departure amid production challenges and shifting political arrangements, yet no concrete moves have materialized and capacity constraints make near-term action unlikely. Ongoing OPEC+ coordination meetings, including the September decision to hold October output steady amid ongoing Gulf supply issues, indicate continued institutional cohesion among remaining producers. With the major recent departure already priced in and no comparable triggers evident in the final months of 2026, market pricing aligns with the low historical frequency of exits and the incentives for quota negotiations over outright withdrawal.