Trader consensus at 97.6% against any EU withdrawal by end-2026 stems primarily from the absence of Article 50 notifications, binding referendums, or parliamentary majorities favoring exit across member states. Post-Brexit economic costs have prompted most Euroskeptic parties, including in France, Italy, and the Netherlands, to prioritize internal reform over departure. Recent polling shows limited public support, such as 25% in Poland favoring exit, while pro-EU coalitions hold power in key capitals. Structural requirements—including constitutional processes and treaty timelines—further constrain action before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from 2027 national elections elevating hardline parties or unforeseen crises prompting rapid sovereignty debates, though these remain distant from formal triggers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЛюбая страна выходит из ЕС до 2027 года?
Любая страна выходит из ЕС до 2027 года?
Да
2% вероятность
$166,282 Объем
$166,282 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$166,282 Объем
$166,282 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at 97.6% against any EU withdrawal by end-2026 stems primarily from the absence of Article 50 notifications, binding referendums, or parliamentary majorities favoring exit across member states. Post-Brexit economic costs have prompted most Euroskeptic parties, including in France, Italy, and the Netherlands, to prioritize internal reform over departure. Recent polling shows limited public support, such as 25% in Poland favoring exit, while pro-EU coalitions hold power in key capitals. Structural requirements—including constitutional processes and treaty timelines—further constrain action before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from 2027 national elections elevating hardline parties or unforeseen crises prompting rapid sovereignty debates, though these remain distant from formal triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Объем
$166,282Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at 97.6% against any EU withdrawal by end-2026 stems primarily from the absence of Article 50 notifications, binding referendums, or parliamentary majorities favoring exit across member states. Post-Brexit economic costs have prompted most Euroskeptic parties, including in France, Italy, and the Netherlands, to prioritize internal reform over departure. Recent polling shows limited public support, such as 25% in Poland favoring exit, while pro-EU coalitions hold power in key capitals. Structural requirements—including constitutional processes and treaty timelines—further constrain action before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from 2027 national elections elevating hardline parties or unforeseen crises prompting rapid sovereignty debates, though these remain distant from formal triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$166,282Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 97.6% against any EU withdrawal by end-2026 stems primarily from the absence of Article 50 notifications, binding referendums, or parliamentary majorities favoring exit across member states. Post-Brexit economic costs have prompted most Euroskeptic parties, including in France, Italy, and the Netherlands, to prioritize internal reform over departure. Recent polling shows limited public support, such as 25% in Poland favoring exit, while pro-EU coalitions hold power in key capitals. Structural requirements—including constitutional processes and treaty timelines—further constrain action before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from 2027 national elections elevating hardline parties or unforeseen crises prompting rapid sovereignty debates, though these remain distant from formal triggers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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