Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 51% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by mixed signals from stalled US-brokered peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal to US officials drew praise for positive discussions but met Russian rejection via Shahed drone attacks on civilian infrastructure, underscoring Moscow's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas within two months. Captured Russian plans outline offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa through 2027, signaling sustained attrition amid Russia's belief it can prolong the conflict. Battlefield stalemates, Trump administration pressure for negotiations, and prospective security guarantees could tip toward Yes, while intensified fighting or failed talks favor No.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2027 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 51% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by mixed signals from stalled US-brokered peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal to US officials drew praise for positive discussions but met Russian rejection via Shahed drone attacks on civilian infrastructure, underscoring Moscow's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas within two months. Captured Russian plans outline offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa through 2027, signaling sustained attrition amid Russia's belief it can prolong the conflict. Battlefield stalemates, Trump administration pressure for negotiations, and prospective security guarantees could tip toward Yes, while intensified fighting or failed talks favor No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Объем
$2,653Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 51% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by mixed signals from stalled US-brokered peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal to US officials drew praise for positive discussions but met Russian rejection via Shahed drone attacks on civilian infrastructure, underscoring Moscow's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas within two months. Captured Russian plans outline offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa through 2027, signaling sustained attrition amid Russia's belief it can prolong the conflict. Battlefield stalemates, Trump administration pressure for negotiations, and prospective security guarantees could tip toward Yes, while intensified fighting or failed talks favor No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$2,653Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 51% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by mixed signals from stalled US-brokered peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal to US officials drew praise for positive discussions but met Russian rejection via Shahed drone attacks on civilian infrastructure, underscoring Moscow's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas within two months. Captured Russian plans outline offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa through 2027, signaling sustained attrition amid Russia's belief it can prolong the conflict. Battlefield stalemates, Trump administration pressure for negotiations, and prospective security guarantees could tip toward Yes, while intensified fighting or failed talks favor No.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы