Saudi Arabia's sustained commitment to a Yemen ceasefire, holding since April 2022 despite Houthi Red Sea disruptions, anchors the 90% "No" odds on military action by March 31. Riyadh has prioritized Vision 2030 economic reforms over re-escalation, avoiding involvement in recent U.S.-led strikes against Houthi targets. A China-brokered Saudi-Iran détente has eased proxy tensions, with no official announcements signaling offensive operations. Recent Houthi truce violations prompted diplomatic rebukes rather than retaliation, reinforcing trader consensus that short-term restraint prevails amid fragile UN-mediated talks and Gulf stability priorities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31?
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31?
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 2:15 PM ET
Объем
$402Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 18, 2026, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$402Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 18, 2026, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Saudi Arabia's sustained commitment to a Yemen ceasefire, holding since April 2022 despite Houthi Red Sea disruptions, anchors the 90% "No" odds on military action by March 31. Riyadh has prioritized Vision 2030 economic reforms over re-escalation, avoiding involvement in recent U.S.-led strikes against Houthi targets. A China-brokered Saudi-Iran détente has eased proxy tensions, with no official announcements signaling offensive operations. Recent Houthi truce violations prompted diplomatic rebukes rather than retaliation, reinforcing trader consensus that short-term restraint prevails amid fragile UN-mediated talks and Gulf stability priorities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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