Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking reelection, maintains a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 13–20 points over Fernando Haddad (PT) in first-round simulations. Recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha place Tarcísio between 41% and 53% of voting intentions, often sufficient for a first-round victory, while Haddad trails at 26–35% and minor candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register under 5%. Traders reflect this through overwhelming consensus on Tarcísio, driven by his established base, state-level performance metrics, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require significant erosion of his support via scandals, turnout surprises among opposition voters, or an unforeseen consolidation behind a stronger alternative before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоТарсисиу де Фрейтас 96.8%
Фернандо Хаддад 2.4%
Эрика Хилтон <1%
Ким Катагири <1%
$284,319 Объем
$284,319 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Тарсисиу де Фрейтас
97%
Фернандо Хаддад
2%
Эрика Хилтон
1%
Ким Катагири
<1%
Марсиу Франса
<1%
Тарсисиу де Фрейтас 96.8%
Фернандо Хаддад 2.4%
Эрика Хилтон <1%
Ким Катагири <1%
$284,319 Объем
$284,319 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Тарсисиу де Фрейтас
$127,129 Объем
97%
Фернандо Хаддад
$47,765 Объем
2%
Эрика Хилтон
$22,704 Объем
1%
Ким Катагири
$76,052 Объем
<1%
Марсиу Франса
$10,668 Объем
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking reelection, maintains a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 13–20 points over Fernando Haddad (PT) in first-round simulations. Recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha place Tarcísio between 41% and 53% of voting intentions, often sufficient for a first-round victory, while Haddad trails at 26–35% and minor candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register under 5%. Traders reflect this through overwhelming consensus on Tarcísio, driven by his established base, state-level performance metrics, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require significant erosion of his support via scandals, turnout surprises among opposition voters, or an unforeseen consolidation behind a stronger alternative before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Объем
$284,319Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking reelection, maintains a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 13–20 points over Fernando Haddad (PT) in first-round simulations. Recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha place Tarcísio between 41% and 53% of voting intentions, often sufficient for a first-round victory, while Haddad trails at 26–35% and minor candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register under 5%. Traders reflect this through overwhelming consensus on Tarcísio, driven by his established base, state-level performance metrics, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require significant erosion of his support via scandals, turnout surprises among opposition voters, or an unforeseen consolidation behind a stronger alternative before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$284,319Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking reelection, maintains a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 13–20 points over Fernando Haddad (PT) in first-round simulations. Recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha place Tarcísio between 41% and 53% of voting intentions, often sufficient for a first-round victory, while Haddad trails at 26–35% and minor candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register under 5%. Traders reflect this through overwhelming consensus on Tarcísio, driven by his established base, state-level performance metrics, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts. A realistic challenge would require significant erosion of his support via scandals, turnout surprises among opposition voters, or an unforeseen consolidation behind a stronger alternative before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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