Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicans candidate seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Multiple recent polls from firms including Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest show him at 41–53% support against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–35%, producing double-digit margins that have remained stable through mid-2026. His position stems from established voter backing in Brazil’s largest electoral state, a narrowed field of challengers, and consistent polling trends favoring the sitting governor. Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register minimal shares. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late consolidation of opposition votes, turnout surges in a concurrent national election, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks that alter first-round or runoff dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоТарсисиу де Фрейтас 96.6%
Фернандо Хаддад 2.5%
Эрика Хилтон <1%
Ким Катагири <1%
$284,319 Объем
$284,319 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Тарсисиу де Фрейтас
97%
Фернандо Хаддад
2%
Эрика Хилтон
1%
Ким Катагири
<1%
Марсиу Франса
<1%
Тарсисиу де Фрейтас 96.6%
Фернандо Хаддад 2.5%
Эрика Хилтон <1%
Ким Катагири <1%
$284,319 Объем
$284,319 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Тарсисиу де Фрейтас
$127,129 Объем
97%
Фернандо Хаддад
$47,765 Объем
2%
Эрика Хилтон
$22,704 Объем
1%
Ким Катагири
$76,052 Объем
<1%
Марсиу Франса
$10,668 Объем
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicans candidate seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Multiple recent polls from firms including Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest show him at 41–53% support against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–35%, producing double-digit margins that have remained stable through mid-2026. His position stems from established voter backing in Brazil’s largest electoral state, a narrowed field of challengers, and consistent polling trends favoring the sitting governor. Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register minimal shares. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late consolidation of opposition votes, turnout surges in a concurrent national election, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks that alter first-round or runoff dynamics.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Объем
$284,319Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicans candidate seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Multiple recent polls from firms including Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest show him at 41–53% support against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–35%, producing double-digit margins that have remained stable through mid-2026. His position stems from established voter backing in Brazil’s largest electoral state, a narrowed field of challengers, and consistent polling trends favoring the sitting governor. Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register minimal shares. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late consolidation of opposition votes, turnout surges in a concurrent national election, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks that alter first-round or runoff dynamics.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$284,319Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicans candidate seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Multiple recent polls from firms including Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest show him at 41–53% support against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–35%, producing double-digit margins that have remained stable through mid-2026. His position stems from established voter backing in Brazil’s largest electoral state, a narrowed field of challengers, and consistent polling trends favoring the sitting governor. Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register minimal shares. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late consolidation of opposition votes, turnout surges in a concurrent national election, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks that alter first-round or runoff dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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