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Политика·Gerrymander

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

icon for Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Политика·Gerrymander

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

$380,310 Объем

3 нояб. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$380,310 Объем

Polymarket

California

$16,999 Объем

96%

Texas

$19,642 Объем

98%

North Carolina

$11,839 Объем

96%

Ohio

$7,348 Объем

97%

Utah

$93,447 Объем

91%

Florida

$6,981 Объем

98%

Louisiana

$16,019 Объем

93%

Missouri

$4,631 Объем

91%

Virginia

$8,965 Объем

2%

Alabama

$16,667 Объем

91%

South Carolina

$28,755 Объем

2%

Georgia

$8,469 Объем

6%

Kansas

$7,361 Объем

4%

New Jersey

$5,195 Объем

4%

Indiana

$31,876 Объем

6%

Washington

$10,036 Объем

5%

Nebraska

$7,045 Объем

3%

Illinois

$11,661 Объем

3%

Minnesota

$10,465 Объем

3%

New York

$18,530 Объем

8%

Maryland

$15,915 Объем

4%

Wisconsin

$22,464 Объем

3%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.Several states have pursued mid-decade congressional redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms, an uncommon process driven by President Trump’s calls for Republican gains in states such as Texas and by the Supreme Court’s April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling that limited Voting Rights Act challenges to majority-minority districts. Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah have enacted new maps, with some already in use for primaries. Virginia’s state Supreme Court overturned a voter-approved Democratic map in May 2026. Ongoing litigation and scheduled special primaries, including Alabama’s August 11 contests, continue to shape which boundaries will apply in November.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is:
- Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority;
- Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and
- In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$380,310
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.Several states have pursued mid-decade congressional redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms, an uncommon process driven by President Trump’s calls for Republican gains in states such as Texas and by the Supreme Court’s April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling that limited Voting Rights Act challenges to majority-minority districts. Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah have enacted new maps, with some already in use for primaries. Virginia’s state Supreme Court overturned a voter-approved Democratic map in May 2026. Ongoing litigation and scheduled special primaries, including Alabama’s August 11 contests, continue to shape which boundaries will apply in November.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is:
- Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority;
- Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and
- In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$380,310
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.

Связанные

icon for Получит ли Республиканская партия менее 190 мест в Палате представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?

Получит ли Республиканская партия менее 190 мест в Палате представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?

23%
Да
icon for Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?

Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?

65%
Да
icon for Республиканцы одерживают триумф с супербольшинством в Сенате на промежуточных выборах?

Республиканцы одерживают триумф с супербольшинством в Сенате на промежуточных выборах?

5%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

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Текущий фаворит для «Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?» — «Texas» с 98%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 98%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Florida» с 98%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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