Virginia courts invalidated the constitutional amendment and Democratic-drawn congressional map approved by voters in April 2026, citing procedural violations in the legislative process that placed the referendum on the ballot. The Virginia Supreme Court ruling in May was upheld when the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene, leaving the existing post-2020 census districts in place for candidate filings, the August primary, and the November general election. With the midterms now weeks away and no successful reversal or new legislative path established, traders assign 96.2% probability to the current map remaining in use. Limited scenarios that could still shift the outcome include extraordinary last-minute litigation succeeding on novel grounds or legislative action overriding prior barriers before election administration deadlines.