Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-25 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Morelle, first elected in 2018, secured his party's nomination in the recent primary against challengers and benefits from the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester metro area, along with a substantial fundraising edge over Republican Virginia McIntyre, who advanced unopposed in her primary. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The Republican share at 2.6% underscores the structural barriers, though late developments such as a national midterm surge for the GOP, a significant scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on prediction markets has remained stable amid these fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25
$25,352 Объем
$25,352 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
3%
$25,352 Объем
$25,352 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$15,110 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$10,243 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-25 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Morelle, first elected in 2018, secured his party's nomination in the recent primary against challengers and benefits from the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester metro area, along with a substantial fundraising edge over Republican Virginia McIntyre, who advanced unopposed in her primary. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The Republican share at 2.6% underscores the structural barriers, though late developments such as a national midterm surge for the GOP, a significant scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on prediction markets has remained stable amid these fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$25,352Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-25 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Morelle, first elected in 2018, secured his party's nomination in the recent primary against challengers and benefits from the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester metro area, along with a substantial fundraising edge over Republican Virginia McIntyre, who advanced unopposed in her primary. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The Republican share at 2.6% underscores the structural barriers, though late developments such as a national midterm surge for the GOP, a significant scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on prediction markets has remained stable amid these fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$25,352Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the 2026 NY-25 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Morelle, first elected in 2018, secured his party's nomination in the recent primary against challengers and benefits from the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester metro area, along with a substantial fundraising edge over Republican Virginia McIntyre, who advanced unopposed in her primary. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The Republican share at 2.6% underscores the structural barriers, though late developments such as a national midterm surge for the GOP, a significant scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on prediction markets has remained stable amid these fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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