Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей VA-03
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей VA-03
$36,750 Объем
$36,750 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$36,750 Объем
$36,750 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$20,078 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$16,672 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$36,750Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$36,750Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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