**Virginia's 3rd Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Representative Bobby Scott positioned as the clear frontrunner.** The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 reflects consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting, including large margins for Kamala Harris in 2024. Scott, first elected in 1993, has maintained comfortable re-election margins, including 70% in the prior cycle, while Republican opposition has been limited and underfunded. Primary elections on August 4 will finalize nominees, but Scott faces minimal Democratic primary opposition and no credible Republican challenger has emerged to alter the fundamentals. Nonpartisan rating outlets including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's demographic and voting patterns in the Hampton Roads area. Trader consensus at 93.5% Democratic reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a shift. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain low-probability and would require either a significant personal or health development affecting the incumbent, an unprecedented national Republican wave exceeding historical precedents for safe seats, or successful legal challenges to the current map—none of which have materialized as of mid-2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей VA-03
$36,750 Объем
$36,750 Объем
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$36,750 Объем
$36,750 Объем
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Virginia's 3rd Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Representative Bobby Scott positioned as the clear frontrunner.** The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 reflects consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting, including large margins for Kamala Harris in 2024. Scott, first elected in 1993, has maintained comfortable re-election margins, including 70% in the prior cycle, while Republican opposition has been limited and underfunded. Primary elections on August 4 will finalize nominees, but Scott faces minimal Democratic primary opposition and no credible Republican challenger has emerged to alter the fundamentals. Nonpartisan rating outlets including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's demographic and voting patterns in the Hampton Roads area. Trader consensus at 93.5% Democratic reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a shift. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain low-probability and would require either a significant personal or health development affecting the incumbent, an unprecedented national Republican wave exceeding historical precedents for safe seats, or successful legal challenges to the current map—none of which have materialized as of mid-2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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