Redistricting under recent California measures shifted the San Diego-area CA-48 district from a historically Republican stronghold toward a competitive or slightly Democratic-leaning seat, with voter registration now favoring Democrats by a modest margin. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in early 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured additional backing from President Trump, positioning Desmond as the likely Republican nominee after the June 2 primary. Recent surveys, including those from SurveyUSA and others conducted in April and May 2026, show leading Democratic candidates ahead of Desmond by 11 to 19 points in general-election matchups. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 85.5% Democratic and 13.5% Republican implied probabilities, aligns with these structural changes and polling trends while noting the race remains subject to primary outcomes and fall campaign dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-48 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-48 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$10,087 Объем
$10,087 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
86%
Республиканская партия
14%
$10,087 Объем
$10,087 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$5,768 Объем
86%
Республиканская партия
$4,319 Объем
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under recent California measures shifted the San Diego-area CA-48 district from a historically Republican stronghold toward a competitive or slightly Democratic-leaning seat, with voter registration now favoring Democrats by a modest margin. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in early 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured additional backing from President Trump, positioning Desmond as the likely Republican nominee after the June 2 primary. Recent surveys, including those from SurveyUSA and others conducted in April and May 2026, show leading Democratic candidates ahead of Desmond by 11 to 19 points in general-election matchups. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 85.5% Democratic and 13.5% Republican implied probabilities, aligns with these structural changes and polling trends while noting the race remains subject to primary outcomes and fall campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Объем
$10,087Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under recent California measures shifted the San Diego-area CA-48 district from a historically Republican stronghold toward a competitive or slightly Democratic-leaning seat, with voter registration now favoring Democrats by a modest margin. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in early 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured additional backing from President Trump, positioning Desmond as the likely Republican nominee after the June 2 primary. Recent surveys, including those from SurveyUSA and others conducted in April and May 2026, show leading Democratic candidates ahead of Desmond by 11 to 19 points in general-election matchups. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 85.5% Democratic and 13.5% Republican implied probabilities, aligns with these structural changes and polling trends while noting the race remains subject to primary outcomes and fall campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$10,087Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under recent California measures shifted the San Diego-area CA-48 district from a historically Republican stronghold toward a competitive or slightly Democratic-leaning seat, with voter registration now favoring Democrats by a modest margin. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in early 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured additional backing from President Trump, positioning Desmond as the likely Republican nominee after the June 2 primary. Recent surveys, including those from SurveyUSA and others conducted in April and May 2026, show leading Democratic candidates ahead of Desmond by 11 to 19 points in general-election matchups. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 85.5% Democratic and 13.5% Republican implied probabilities, aligns with these structural changes and polling trends while noting the race remains subject to primary outcomes and fall campaign dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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