Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-14
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей FL-14
$45,822 Объем
$45,822 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Кэти Кастор (Д)
63%
Майк Бельтран (Р)
36%
$45,822 Объем
$45,822 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Кэти Кастор (Д)
$23,541 Объем
63%
Майк Бельтран (Р)
$22,281 Объем
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Объем
$45,822Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$45,822Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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