Lou Correa's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+10 and prior general election margins exceeding 25 points, underpin the market's 92.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary on June 2 features multiple Democratic entrants against limited Republican opposition, with no recent polling or developments indicating a shift. Historical patterns in safely Democratic seats and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment sustain trader expectations. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican turnout surge in the November general or an unforeseen primary upset elevating a high-profile challenger, though both remain low-probability based on structural fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-46 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-46 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$11,259 Объем
$11,259 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
93%
Республиканская партия
6%
$11,259 Объем
$11,259 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$2,449 Объем
93%
Республиканская партия
$8,811 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lou Correa's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+10 and prior general election margins exceeding 25 points, underpin the market's 92.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary on June 2 features multiple Democratic entrants against limited Republican opposition, with no recent polling or developments indicating a shift. Historical patterns in safely Democratic seats and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment sustain trader expectations. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican turnout surge in the November general or an unforeseen primary upset elevating a high-profile challenger, though both remain low-probability based on structural fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Объем
$11,259Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lou Correa's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+10 and prior general election margins exceeding 25 points, underpin the market's 92.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary on June 2 features multiple Democratic entrants against limited Republican opposition, with no recent polling or developments indicating a shift. Historical patterns in safely Democratic seats and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment sustain trader expectations. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican turnout surge in the November general or an unforeseen primary upset elevating a high-profile challenger, though both remain low-probability based on structural fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,259Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lou Correa's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+10 and prior general election margins exceeding 25 points, underpin the market's 92.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary on June 2 features multiple Democratic entrants against limited Republican opposition, with no recent polling or developments indicating a shift. Historical patterns in safely Democratic seats and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment sustain trader expectations. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican turnout surge in the November general or an unforeseen primary upset elevating a high-profile challenger, though both remain low-probability based on structural fundamentals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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