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icon for VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Polymarket

$66,868 Объем

Polymarket

$66,868 Объем

Джон МакГуайр (Р)

$32,613 Объем

84%

Том Перриэлло (Д)

$34,255 Объем

17%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John McGuire secured the Republican nomination with 84% in the August primary and holds an 84% implied probability in the November general election for Virginia’s 5th congressional district, reflecting the area’s Republican baseline and his 2024 general-election margin. The district’s partisan lean, combined with McGuire’s conservative voting record on issues such as armed services, oversight, and alignment with Trump-era priorities, has sustained trader expectations of an incumbent victory. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former district representative, won his primary decisively and has raised more than McGuire while holding a substantial cash advantage, yet faces structural headwinds. A late-July poll showed the race within the margin of error, and Perriello has launched ads and joined a joint fundraising effort with other Virginia Democrats; however, McGuire’s refusal to debate pending an apology over insider-trading remarks underscores ongoing campaign friction without shifting the overall market positioning.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$66,868
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John McGuire secured the Republican nomination with 84% in the August primary and holds an 84% implied probability in the November general election for Virginia’s 5th congressional district, reflecting the area’s Republican baseline and his 2024 general-election margin. The district’s partisan lean, combined with McGuire’s conservative voting record on issues such as armed services, oversight, and alignment with Trump-era priorities, has sustained trader expectations of an incumbent victory. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former district representative, won his primary decisively and has raised more than McGuire while holding a substantial cash advantage, yet faces structural headwinds. A late-July poll showed the race within the margin of error, and Perriello has launched ads and joined a joint fundraising effort with other Virginia Democrats; however, McGuire’s refusal to debate pending an apology over insider-trading remarks underscores ongoing campaign friction without shifting the overall market positioning.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$66,868
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу VA-06?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу VA-06?

93%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу MD-05?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу MD-05?

95%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу NC-05?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу NC-05?

86%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Джон МакГуайр (Р)» с 84%, за ним следует «Том Перриэлло (Д)» с 17%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 84¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 84%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $66.9K с момента запуска рынка Jan 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Джон МакГуайр (Р)» с 84%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 84%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Том Перриэлло (Д)» с 17%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.