Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоVA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
VA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$55,574 Объем
$55,574 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
75%
Демократическая партия
27%
$55,574 Объем
$55,574 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$26,675 Объем
75%
Демократическая партия
$28,900 Объем
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$55,574Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$55,574Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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