Democratic House incumbents face elevated primary challenges in the 2026 cycle amid intraparty tensions between moderates and progressive factions, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting impacts in multiple states. With seven Democratic losses already recorded by late July—including recent New York defeats of Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat—trader consensus clusters on 10-15 total defeats because remaining contests in California and elsewhere could add several more upset victories or produce incumbents holding on through established fundraising and organizational edges. This narrow spread between the leading 13-15 and 10-12 outcomes reflects uncertainty over how many additional contested races will produce decisive turnout shifts versus safe re-nominations, with upcoming filing deadlines, endorsements from party factions, and late polling in battleground districts serving as key variables that could widen or narrow the final tally.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4-6 10.4%
>15 3.1%
7-9 2.0%
<3 <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<3
9%
4-6
10%
7-9
24%
10–12
36%
13–15
45%
>15
3%
4-6 10.4%
>15 3.1%
7-9 2.0%
<3 <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<3
$295 Объем
9%
4-6
$677 Объем
10%
7-9
$287 Объем
24%
10–12
$571 Объем
36%
13–15
$599 Объем
45%
>15
$616 Объем
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents face elevated primary challenges in the 2026 cycle amid intraparty tensions between moderates and progressive factions, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting impacts in multiple states. With seven Democratic losses already recorded by late July—including recent New York defeats of Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat—trader consensus clusters on 10-15 total defeats because remaining contests in California and elsewhere could add several more upset victories or produce incumbents holding on through established fundraising and organizational edges. This narrow spread between the leading 13-15 and 10-12 outcomes reflects uncertainty over how many additional contested races will produce decisive turnout shifts versus safe re-nominations, with upcoming filing deadlines, endorsements from party factions, and late polling in battleground districts serving as key variables that could widen or narrow the final tally.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Объем
$3,044Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents face elevated primary challenges in the 2026 cycle amid intraparty tensions between moderates and progressive factions, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting impacts in multiple states. With seven Democratic losses already recorded by late July—including recent New York defeats of Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat—trader consensus clusters on 10-15 total defeats because remaining contests in California and elsewhere could add several more upset victories or produce incumbents holding on through established fundraising and organizational edges. This narrow spread between the leading 13-15 and 10-12 outcomes reflects uncertainty over how many additional contested races will produce decisive turnout shifts versus safe re-nominations, with upcoming filing deadlines, endorsements from party factions, and late polling in battleground districts serving as key variables that could widen or narrow the final tally.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Объем
$3,044Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic House incumbents face elevated primary challenges in the 2026 cycle amid intraparty tensions between moderates and progressive factions, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting impacts in multiple states. With seven Democratic losses already recorded by late July—including recent New York defeats of Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat—trader consensus clusters on 10-15 total defeats because remaining contests in California and elsewhere could add several more upset victories or produce incumbents holding on through established fundraising and organizational edges. This narrow spread between the leading 13-15 and 10-12 outcomes reflects uncertainty over how many additional contested races will produce decisive turnout shifts versus safe re-nominations, with upcoming filing deadlines, endorsements from party factions, and late polling in battleground districts serving as key variables that could widen or narrow the final tally.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
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Выиграют ли все действующие сенаторы-демократы свои праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
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Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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