Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with seven defeats confirmed through August amid progressive challenges in safe districts and redistricting effects in states like Texas. Recent upsets include losses by Representatives Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, exceeding typical historical averages and reflecting voter shifts toward generational or ideological alternatives. Remaining primaries in September and later states introduce further uncertainty, as additional contested races could add to the total or stabilize it depending on challenger strength and turnout patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 10–15 total losses because the pace of defeats has been elevated but not uniformly replicated across all districts, leaving room for either modest or accelerated final counts before cycle completion.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено10–12 41.5%
13–15 26.5%
7-9 25.6%
>15 3.2%
$24,389 Объем
$24,389 Объем
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
26%
10–12
42%
13–15
26%
>15
3%
10–12 41.5%
13–15 26.5%
7-9 25.6%
>15 3.2%
$24,389 Объем
$24,389 Объем
<3
$1,106 Объем
<1%
4-6
$1,872 Объем
<1%
7-9
$11,704 Объем
26%
10–12
$5,156 Объем
42%
13–15
$2,150 Объем
26%
>15
$2,401 Объем
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with seven defeats confirmed through August amid progressive challenges in safe districts and redistricting effects in states like Texas. Recent upsets include losses by Representatives Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, exceeding typical historical averages and reflecting voter shifts toward generational or ideological alternatives. Remaining primaries in September and later states introduce further uncertainty, as additional contested races could add to the total or stabilize it depending on challenger strength and turnout patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 10–15 total losses because the pace of defeats has been elevated but not uniformly replicated across all districts, leaving room for either modest or accelerated final counts before cycle completion.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Объем
$24,389Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with seven defeats confirmed through August amid progressive challenges in safe districts and redistricting effects in states like Texas. Recent upsets include losses by Representatives Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, exceeding typical historical averages and reflecting voter shifts toward generational or ideological alternatives. Remaining primaries in September and later states introduce further uncertainty, as additional contested races could add to the total or stabilize it depending on challenger strength and turnout patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 10–15 total losses because the pace of defeats has been elevated but not uniformly replicated across all districts, leaving room for either modest or accelerated final counts before cycle completion.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Объем
$24,389Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with seven defeats confirmed through August amid progressive challenges in safe districts and redistricting effects in states like Texas. Recent upsets include losses by Representatives Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, exceeding typical historical averages and reflecting voter shifts toward generational or ideological alternatives. Remaining primaries in September and later states introduce further uncertainty, as additional contested races could add to the total or stabilize it depending on challenger strength and turnout patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 10–15 total losses because the pace of defeats has been elevated but not uniformly replicated across all districts, leaving room for either modest or accelerated final counts before cycle completion.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
93%
Да
Выиграют ли все действующие сенаторы-демократы свои праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
89%
Да
У Республиканской партии будет меньше 22 губернаторских постов после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
33%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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