Several Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced notable upsets, including two incumbents defeated in New York on June 23 amid progressive challenges tied to local and national party tensions. Additional contests in states such as Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., have featured insurgent campaigns against establishment figures, though many incumbents in safer districts have advanced with limited opposition. With primary dates staggered through August and beyond, varying levels of fundraising, turnout, and redistricting effects continue to shape outcomes across roughly two dozen contested races. The market's tight clustering around 10-12 and 13-15 reflects uncertainty over whether recent insurgent momentum will expand or plateau as remaining contests conclude. Further separation could emerge from results in key upcoming states, shifts in outside spending, or any high-profile withdrawals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено13–15 23.6%
7-9 20.1%
<3 8.0%
10–12 7.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<3
8%
4-6
6%
7-9
20%
10–12
25%
13–15
24%
>15
3%
13–15 23.6%
7-9 20.1%
<3 8.0%
10–12 7.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<3
$295 Объем
8%
4-6
$677 Объем
6%
7-9
$287 Объем
20%
10–12
$571 Объем
25%
13–15
$599 Объем
24%
>15
$616 Объем
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Several Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced notable upsets, including two incumbents defeated in New York on June 23 amid progressive challenges tied to local and national party tensions. Additional contests in states such as Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., have featured insurgent campaigns against establishment figures, though many incumbents in safer districts have advanced with limited opposition. With primary dates staggered through August and beyond, varying levels of fundraising, turnout, and redistricting effects continue to shape outcomes across roughly two dozen contested races. The market's tight clustering around 10-12 and 13-15 reflects uncertainty over whether recent insurgent momentum will expand or plateau as remaining contests conclude. Further separation could emerge from results in key upcoming states, shifts in outside spending, or any high-profile withdrawals.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Объем
$3,044Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Several Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced notable upsets, including two incumbents defeated in New York on June 23 amid progressive challenges tied to local and national party tensions. Additional contests in states such as Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., have featured insurgent campaigns against establishment figures, though many incumbents in safer districts have advanced with limited opposition. With primary dates staggered through August and beyond, varying levels of fundraising, turnout, and redistricting effects continue to shape outcomes across roughly two dozen contested races. The market's tight clustering around 10-12 and 13-15 reflects uncertainty over whether recent insurgent momentum will expand or plateau as remaining contests conclude. Further separation could emerge from results in key upcoming states, shifts in outside spending, or any high-profile withdrawals.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Объем
$3,044Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Several Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced notable upsets, including two incumbents defeated in New York on June 23 amid progressive challenges tied to local and national party tensions. Additional contests in states such as Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., have featured insurgent campaigns against establishment figures, though many incumbents in safer districts have advanced with limited opposition. With primary dates staggered through August and beyond, varying levels of fundraising, turnout, and redistricting effects continue to shape outcomes across roughly two dozen contested races. The market's tight clustering around 10-12 and 13-15 reflects uncertainty over whether recent insurgent momentum will expand or plateau as remaining contests conclude. Further separation could emerge from results in key upcoming states, shifts in outside spending, or any high-profile withdrawals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
85%
Да
Выиграют ли все действующие сенаторы-демократы свои праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
80%
Да
Получит ли Республиканская партия менее 190 мест в Палате представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
22%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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