**Trader consensus centers on 7-9 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries because six to seven have already been defeated this cycle amid elevated intraparty challenges, with additional contests still ahead.** Recent primary results include losses by Reps. Diana DeGette (Colorado), Shri Thanedar (Michigan), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (New York), Al Green (Texas, via redistricting matchup), and Julie Johnson (Texas), pushing the total into the range that aligns with the leading 7-9 bin. Reports from Axios and the Center for Politics highlight that 2026 has already exceeded historical averages for incumbent defeats outside redistricting years, driven by progressive challengers targeting moderates in safe Democratic districts. Ongoing races in states such as California and others could add a few more defeats before the cycle concludes, supporting the 66.5% probability on 7-9 while keeping 10-12 as a plausible secondary outcome at 21.3%. The elevated turnover reflects broader intraparty dynamics rather than a single event, with most remaining primaries concentrated in the coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено7-9 66.5%
10–12 28.4%
13–15 6.1%
<3 4.7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<3
5%
4-6
10%
7-9
67%
10–12
22%
13–15
6%
>15
2%
7-9 66.5%
10–12 28.4%
13–15 6.1%
<3 4.7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<3
$351 Объем
5%
4-6
$677 Объем
10%
7-9
$6,291 Объем
67%
10–12
$709 Объем
22%
13–15
$619 Объем
6%
>15
$687 Объем
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 7-9 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries because six to seven have already been defeated this cycle amid elevated intraparty challenges, with additional contests still ahead.**
Recent primary results include losses by Reps. Diana DeGette (Colorado), Shri Thanedar (Michigan), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (New York), Al Green (Texas, via redistricting matchup), and Julie Johnson (Texas), pushing the total into the range that aligns with the leading 7-9 bin. Reports from Axios and the Center for Politics highlight that 2026 has already exceeded historical averages for incumbent defeats outside redistricting years, driven by progressive challengers targeting moderates in safe Democratic districts.
Ongoing races in states such as California and others could add a few more defeats before the cycle concludes, supporting the 66.5% probability on 7-9 while keeping 10-12 as a plausible secondary outcome at 21.3%. The elevated turnover reflects broader intraparty dynamics rather than a single event, with most remaining primaries concentrated in the coming weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Объем
$9,333Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 7-9 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries because six to seven have already been defeated this cycle amid elevated intraparty challenges, with additional contests still ahead.**
Recent primary results include losses by Reps. Diana DeGette (Colorado), Shri Thanedar (Michigan), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (New York), Al Green (Texas, via redistricting matchup), and Julie Johnson (Texas), pushing the total into the range that aligns with the leading 7-9 bin. Reports from Axios and the Center for Politics highlight that 2026 has already exceeded historical averages for incumbent defeats outside redistricting years, driven by progressive challengers targeting moderates in safe Democratic districts.
Ongoing races in states such as California and others could add a few more defeats before the cycle concludes, supporting the 66.5% probability on 7-9 while keeping 10-12 as a plausible secondary outcome at 21.3%. The elevated turnover reflects broader intraparty dynamics rather than a single event, with most remaining primaries concentrated in the coming weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Объем
$9,333Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus centers on 7-9 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries because six to seven have already been defeated this cycle amid elevated intraparty challenges, with additional contests still ahead.** Recent primary results include losses by Reps. Diana DeGette (Colorado), Shri Thanedar (Michigan), Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat (New York), Al Green (Texas, via redistricting matchup), and Julie Johnson (Texas), pushing the total into the range that aligns with the leading 7-9 bin. Reports from Axios and the Center for Politics highlight that 2026 has already exceeded historical averages for incumbent defeats outside redistricting years, driven by progressive challengers targeting moderates in safe Democratic districts. Ongoing races in states such as California and others could add a few more defeats before the cycle concludes, supporting the 66.5% probability on 7-9 while keeping 10-12 as a plausible secondary outcome at 21.3%. The elevated turnover reflects broader intraparty dynamics rather than a single event, with most remaining primaries concentrated in the coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
93%
Да
Выиграют ли все действующие сенаторы-демократы свои праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
78%
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Победят ли действующие республиканцы в Сенате не ровно в трёх праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
63%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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