The new Ohio congressional map enacted by the bipartisan redistricting commission in October 2025 slightly strengthened Republican leans in two districts previously held by Democrats, reducing the number of competitive seats compared with the prior lines. Democrats currently hold five seats, with incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th facing the most pressure under updated partisan voting indices that now range from R+1 to R+5 in those areas. Midterm dynamics, including the national generic ballot and turnout patterns in suburban and northwest Ohio districts, remain the primary variables that could determine whether Democrats maintain five seats or reach six. Trader consensus reflected in the leading probabilities for five or six Democratic wins aligns with the map’s structural tilt and limited offensive opportunities for the party in a state that has trended Republican in recent statewide results.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено6 41%
7+ 24%
5 22%
4 8%
$29,327 Объем
$29,327 Объем
4 янв. 2027 г.
<2
<1%
2
<1%
3
1%
4
8%
5
22%
6
41%
7+
24%
6 41%
7+ 24%
5 22%
4 8%
$29,327 Объем
$29,327 Объем
4 янв. 2027 г.
<2
$1,047 Объем
<1%
2
$1,449 Объем
<1%
3
$2,202 Объем
1%
4
$6,867 Объем
8%
5
$3,962 Объем
22%
6
$6,376 Объем
41%
7+
$7,425 Объем
24%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new Ohio congressional map enacted by the bipartisan redistricting commission in October 2025 slightly strengthened Republican leans in two districts previously held by Democrats, reducing the number of competitive seats compared with the prior lines. Democrats currently hold five seats, with incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th facing the most pressure under updated partisan voting indices that now range from R+1 to R+5 in those areas. Midterm dynamics, including the national generic ballot and turnout patterns in suburban and northwest Ohio districts, remain the primary variables that could determine whether Democrats maintain five seats or reach six. Trader consensus reflected in the leading probabilities for five or six Democratic wins aligns with the map’s structural tilt and limited offensive opportunities for the party in a state that has trended Republican in recent statewide results.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Объем
$29,327Дата окончания
5 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new Ohio congressional map enacted by the bipartisan redistricting commission in October 2025 slightly strengthened Republican leans in two districts previously held by Democrats, reducing the number of competitive seats compared with the prior lines. Democrats currently hold five seats, with incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th facing the most pressure under updated partisan voting indices that now range from R+1 to R+5 in those areas. Midterm dynamics, including the national generic ballot and turnout patterns in suburban and northwest Ohio districts, remain the primary variables that could determine whether Democrats maintain five seats or reach six. Trader consensus reflected in the leading probabilities for five or six Democratic wins aligns with the map’s structural tilt and limited offensive opportunities for the party in a state that has trended Republican in recent statewide results.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$29,327Дата окончания
5 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47de9d...The new Ohio congressional map enacted by the bipartisan redistricting commission in October 2025 slightly strengthened Republican leans in two districts previously held by Democrats, reducing the number of competitive seats compared with the prior lines. Democrats currently hold five seats, with incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th facing the most pressure under updated partisan voting indices that now range from R+1 to R+5 in those areas. Midterm dynamics, including the national generic ballot and turnout patterns in suburban and northwest Ohio districts, remain the primary variables that could determine whether Democrats maintain five seats or reach six. Trader consensus reflected in the leading probabilities for five or six Democratic wins aligns with the map’s structural tilt and limited offensive opportunities for the party in a state that has trended Republican in recent statewide results.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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