Anthropic’s confidential submission of a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1 has positioned the Claude large language model developer ahead in the race, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability it reaches public markets first. The filing, which follows months of banker discussions, allows the company to complete SEC review and potentially price an offering as early as fall 2026 depending on market conditions. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparing its own confidential filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley after May reports indicated a possible September timeline, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders are weighting Anthropic’s concrete regulatory step and slightly earlier preparation momentum more heavily than OpenAI’s larger scale and revenue base, while recognizing that either firm’s final pricing window could still shift with SEC feedback or broader equity market volatility.