Traders assign a 96.3% probability to the Parti Vert du Québec failing to win any seat in the October 5, 2026, general election because the party registers negligible support in recent polling averages and seat projections that focus on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec Solidaire. Under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system, minor parties face structural barriers to electing MNAs without concentrated regional strength or vote splitting that favors them. PVQ has never secured a seat historically, and its eco-socialist positioning overlaps with Québec Solidaire’s established base. Late-campaign developments such as a breakthrough local candidacy, major scandal affecting a frontrunner in one riding, or unusually high turnout among environmental voters remain the primary factors that could still alter this near-consensus outcome before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 окт. 2026 г.
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 окт. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Traders assign a 96.3% probability to the Parti Vert du Québec failing to win any seat in the October 5, 2026, general election because the party registers negligible support in recent polling averages and seat projections that focus on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec Solidaire. Under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system, minor parties face structural barriers to electing MNAs without concentrated regional strength or vote splitting that favors them. PVQ has never secured a seat historically, and its eco-socialist positioning overlaps with Québec Solidaire’s established base. Late-campaign developments such as a breakthrough local candidacy, major scandal affecting a frontrunner in one riding, or unusually high turnout among environmental voters remain the primary factors that could still alter this near-consensus outcome before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Объем
$808Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Traders assign a 96.3% probability to the Parti Vert du Québec failing to win any seat in the October 5, 2026, general election because the party registers negligible support in recent polling averages and seat projections that focus on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec Solidaire. Under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system, minor parties face structural barriers to electing MNAs without concentrated regional strength or vote splitting that favors them. PVQ has never secured a seat historically, and its eco-socialist positioning overlaps with Québec Solidaire’s established base. Late-campaign developments such as a breakthrough local candidacy, major scandal affecting a frontrunner in one riding, or unusually high turnout among environmental voters remain the primary factors that could still alter this near-consensus outcome before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Объем
$808Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.3% probability to the Parti Vert du Québec failing to win any seat in the October 5, 2026, general election because the party registers negligible support in recent polling averages and seat projections that focus on the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec Solidaire. Under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system, minor parties face structural barriers to electing MNAs without concentrated regional strength or vote splitting that favors them. PVQ has never secured a seat historically, and its eco-socialist positioning overlaps with Québec Solidaire’s established base. Late-campaign developments such as a breakthrough local candidacy, major scandal affecting a frontrunner in one riding, or unusually high turnout among environmental voters remain the primary factors that could still alter this near-consensus outcome before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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