**Trader consensus at 95% against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 reflects sustained bipartisan resistance and limited political incentive.** The Senate unanimously passed a non-binding resolution in July 2026 urging against any pardon or commutation, citing her 20-year sentence for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House statements have described the matter as not under active consideration. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out a pardon while emphasizing he has not thought about it, received no formal request, and would consult the Department of Justice. Maxwell has exhausted most appellate options, shifting focus to executive clemency, yet recent developments show no momentum toward approval before the 2026 midterms or term end. Traders appear to weigh these institutional and electoral constraints heavily against the low-probability scenarios that could still prompt action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$748,309 Объем
$748,309 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
5% вероятность
$748,309 Объем
$748,309 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus at 95% against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 reflects sustained bipartisan resistance and limited political incentive.** The Senate unanimously passed a non-binding resolution in July 2026 urging against any pardon or commutation, citing her 20-year sentence for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House statements have described the matter as not under active consideration.
Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out a pardon while emphasizing he has not thought about it, received no formal request, and would consult the Department of Justice. Maxwell has exhausted most appellate options, shifting focus to executive clemency, yet recent developments show no momentum toward approval before the 2026 midterms or term end. Traders appear to weigh these institutional and electoral constraints heavily against the low-probability scenarios that could still prompt action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Объем
$748,309Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus at 95% against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 reflects sustained bipartisan resistance and limited political incentive.** The Senate unanimously passed a non-binding resolution in July 2026 urging against any pardon or commutation, citing her 20-year sentence for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House statements have described the matter as not under active consideration.
Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out a pardon while emphasizing he has not thought about it, received no formal request, and would consult the Department of Justice. Maxwell has exhausted most appellate options, shifting focus to executive clemency, yet recent developments show no momentum toward approval before the 2026 midterms or term end. Traders appear to weigh these institutional and electoral constraints heavily against the low-probability scenarios that could still prompt action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$748,309Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...**Trader consensus at 95% against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 reflects sustained bipartisan resistance and limited political incentive.** The Senate unanimously passed a non-binding resolution in July 2026 urging against any pardon or commutation, citing her 20-year sentence for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House statements have described the matter as not under active consideration. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out a pardon while emphasizing he has not thought about it, received no formal request, and would consult the Department of Justice. Maxwell has exhausted most appellate options, shifting focus to executive clemency, yet recent developments show no momentum toward approval before the 2026 midterms or term end. Traders appear to weigh these institutional and electoral constraints heavily against the low-probability scenarios that could still prompt action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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