Recent Middle East conflict developments, including US-Iran tensions and related energy price spikes, have weighed on global growth prospects through higher input costs and reduced confidence, while AI-driven investment and tech exports have provided offsetting support in Asia and advanced economies. Institutional forecasts for 2026 world GDP growth cluster around 2.5-3.0 percent, with the IMF projecting 3.0 percent in its July update and the Kiel Institute lifting its September estimate to 3.0 percent on purchasing-power-parity terms amid resilient activity outside the Gulf. Consensus measures such as FocusEconomics stand near 2.51 percent as of early September. These factors sustain tight market-implied odds between 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes, with swing risks tied to oil price volatility, Q3 data releases, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth path toward 3.2 percent.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
3.1% 36.6%
3.0% 28.4%
≤2.9% 18.1%
3.2% 11.8%
$32,417 ปริมาณ
$32,417 ปริมาณ
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
18%
3.0%
28%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
12%
3.3%
3%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
2%
3.6%
3%
3.7%+
1%
3.1% 36.6%
3.0% 28.4%
≤2.9% 18.1%
3.2% 11.8%
$32,417 ปริมาณ
$32,417 ปริมาณ
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
$6,278 ปริมาณ
18%
3.0%
$5,338 ปริมาณ
28%
3.1%
$4,338 ปริมาณ
37%
3.2%
$2,317 ปริมาณ
12%
3.3%
$4,033 ปริมาณ
3%
3.4%
$4,552 ปริมาณ
4%
3.5%
$3,589 ปริมาณ
2%
3.6%
$912 ปริมาณ
3%
3.7%+
$1,060 ปริมาณ
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict developments, including US-Iran tensions and related energy price spikes, have weighed on global growth prospects through higher input costs and reduced confidence, while AI-driven investment and tech exports have provided offsetting support in Asia and advanced economies. Institutional forecasts for 2026 world GDP growth cluster around 2.5-3.0 percent, with the IMF projecting 3.0 percent in its July update and the Kiel Institute lifting its September estimate to 3.0 percent on purchasing-power-parity terms amid resilient activity outside the Gulf. Consensus measures such as FocusEconomics stand near 2.51 percent as of early September. These factors sustain tight market-implied odds between 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes, with swing risks tied to oil price volatility, Q3 data releases, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth path toward 3.2 percent.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,417วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict developments, including US-Iran tensions and related energy price spikes, have weighed on global growth prospects through higher input costs and reduced confidence, while AI-driven investment and tech exports have provided offsetting support in Asia and advanced economies. Institutional forecasts for 2026 world GDP growth cluster around 2.5-3.0 percent, with the IMF projecting 3.0 percent in its July update and the Kiel Institute lifting its September estimate to 3.0 percent on purchasing-power-parity terms amid resilient activity outside the Gulf. Consensus measures such as FocusEconomics stand near 2.51 percent as of early September. These factors sustain tight market-implied odds between 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes, with swing risks tied to oil price volatility, Q3 data releases, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth path toward 3.2 percent.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,417วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East conflict developments, including US-Iran tensions and related energy price spikes, have weighed on global growth prospects through higher input costs and reduced confidence, while AI-driven investment and tech exports have provided offsetting support in Asia and advanced economies. Institutional forecasts for 2026 world GDP growth cluster around 2.5-3.0 percent, with the IMF projecting 3.0 percent in its July update and the Kiel Institute lifting its September estimate to 3.0 percent on purchasing-power-parity terms amid resilient activity outside the Gulf. Consensus measures such as FocusEconomics stand near 2.51 percent as of early September. These factors sustain tight market-implied odds between 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes, with swing risks tied to oil price volatility, Q3 data releases, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth path toward 3.2 percent.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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