Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—a 0.2 percentage point cut from January—driven by Middle East conflict escalation, surging energy prices, and persistent inflation pressures. Close contenders at 18.4% for 3.1% and 18.1% for 3.0% align with this revised consensus from IMF, OECD (2.9%), and PIIE forecasts, tempered by March U.S. CPI at 3.3% and steady Fed funds rate, curbing monetary easing expectations. Emerging market resilience, like India's upgraded 6.6% trajectory, offers partial offset amid trade tensions; upcoming FOMC and ECB meetings loom as catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
≤2.9% 24%
3.7%+ 12.5%
3.1% 6.8%
3.2% 5.4%
$15,683 ปริมาณ
$15,683 ปริมาณ
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
38%
3.0%
18%
3.1%
18%
3.2%
5%
3.3%
2%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
4%
3.6%
1%
3.7%+
13%
≤2.9% 24%
3.7%+ 12.5%
3.1% 6.8%
3.2% 5.4%
$15,683 ปริมาณ
$15,683 ปริมาณ
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,737 ปริมาณ
38%
3.0%
$405 ปริมาณ
18%
3.1%
$368 ปริมาณ
18%
3.2%
$1,553 ปริมาณ
5%
3.3%
$1,899 ปริมาณ
2%
3.4%
$3,507 ปริมาณ
4%
3.5%
$2,991 ปริมาณ
4%
3.6%
$452 ปริมาณ
1%
3.7%+
$771 ปริมาณ
13%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—a 0.2 percentage point cut from January—driven by Middle East conflict escalation, surging energy prices, and persistent inflation pressures. Close contenders at 18.4% for 3.1% and 18.1% for 3.0% align with this revised consensus from IMF, OECD (2.9%), and PIIE forecasts, tempered by March U.S. CPI at 3.3% and steady Fed funds rate, curbing monetary easing expectations. Emerging market resilience, like India's upgraded 6.6% trajectory, offers partial offset amid trade tensions; upcoming FOMC and ECB meetings loom as catalysts.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,683วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—a 0.2 percentage point cut from January—driven by Middle East conflict escalation, surging energy prices, and persistent inflation pressures. Close contenders at 18.4% for 3.1% and 18.1% for 3.0% align with this revised consensus from IMF, OECD (2.9%), and PIIE forecasts, tempered by March U.S. CPI at 3.3% and steady Fed funds rate, curbing monetary easing expectations. Emerging market resilience, like India's upgraded 6.6% trajectory, offers partial offset amid trade tensions; upcoming FOMC and ECB meetings loom as catalysts.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,683วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—a 0.2 percentage point cut from January—driven by Middle East conflict escalation, surging energy prices, and persistent inflation pressures. Close contenders at 18.4% for 3.1% and 18.1% for 3.0% align with this revised consensus from IMF, OECD (2.9%), and PIIE forecasts, tempered by March U.S. CPI at 3.3% and steady Fed funds rate, curbing monetary easing expectations. Emerging market resilience, like India's upgraded 6.6% trajectory, offers partial offset amid trade tensions; upcoming FOMC and ECB meetings loom as catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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