Recent quarterly data and analyst forecasts underpin the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands for full-year 2026 U.S. real GDP growth. The second-quarter advance of 1.5% annualized followed a 2.1% first-quarter pace, with Q3 nowcasts pointing to a rebound near 2.4% amid accelerating private investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Forecasts from the June FOMC median (2.2%), Deloitte (2.0%), and S&P Global (2.1%) cluster in this range, reflecting resilient business spending offset by elevated energy prices, firmer inflation near 3.2%, and moderating consumer demand. Key swing factors include September employment and CPI releases plus the October Q3 GDP report, which could clarify whether growth settles below or above the 2% threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 47%
1.5–2.0% 45.5%
>2.5% 8.1%
<0.5% 4.0%
$60,430 ปริมาณ
$60,430 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
2%
1.5–2.0%
45%
2.0–2.5%
47%
>2.5%
8%
2.0–2.5% 47%
1.5–2.0% 45.5%
>2.5% 8.1%
<0.5% 4.0%
$60,430 ปริมาณ
$60,430 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,649 ปริมาณ
4%
0.5–1.0%
$17,357 ปริมาณ
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,941 ปริมาณ
2%
1.5–2.0%
$7,520 ปริมาณ
45%
2.0–2.5%
$7,845 ปริมาณ
47%
>2.5%
$16,119 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data and analyst forecasts underpin the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands for full-year 2026 U.S. real GDP growth. The second-quarter advance of 1.5% annualized followed a 2.1% first-quarter pace, with Q3 nowcasts pointing to a rebound near 2.4% amid accelerating private investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Forecasts from the June FOMC median (2.2%), Deloitte (2.0%), and S&P Global (2.1%) cluster in this range, reflecting resilient business spending offset by elevated energy prices, firmer inflation near 3.2%, and moderating consumer demand. Key swing factors include September employment and CPI releases plus the October Q3 GDP report, which could clarify whether growth settles below or above the 2% threshold.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$60,430วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data and analyst forecasts underpin the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands for full-year 2026 U.S. real GDP growth. The second-quarter advance of 1.5% annualized followed a 2.1% first-quarter pace, with Q3 nowcasts pointing to a rebound near 2.4% amid accelerating private investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Forecasts from the June FOMC median (2.2%), Deloitte (2.0%), and S&P Global (2.1%) cluster in this range, reflecting resilient business spending offset by elevated energy prices, firmer inflation near 3.2%, and moderating consumer demand. Key swing factors include September employment and CPI releases plus the October Q3 GDP report, which could clarify whether growth settles below or above the 2% threshold.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$60,430วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly data and analyst forecasts underpin the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands for full-year 2026 U.S. real GDP growth. The second-quarter advance of 1.5% annualized followed a 2.1% first-quarter pace, with Q3 nowcasts pointing to a rebound near 2.4% amid accelerating private investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Forecasts from the June FOMC median (2.2%), Deloitte (2.0%), and S&P Global (2.1%) cluster in this range, reflecting resilient business spending offset by elevated energy prices, firmer inflation near 3.2%, and moderating consumer demand. Key swing factors include September employment and CPI releases plus the October Q3 GDP report, which could clarify whether growth settles below or above the 2% threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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