Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth places the highest implied probability (47.5%) on expansion above 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, AI-driven business investment, and resilient consumer spending that offset the modest 1.6% annualized Q1 2026 pace reported in the second BEA estimate. Forecasts from institutions such as the CBO, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2%, with Goldman Sachs citing a 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 pace, while headwinds including elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and slower immigration tempering labor force growth keep the 1.5–2.5% range as a close secondary cluster. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming Q2 GDP release and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and thereby influence growth trajectories.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 18.4%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 11.0%
$30,011 ปริมาณ
$30,011 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
11%
1.5–2.0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
18%
>2.5%
45%
>2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 18.4%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 11.0%
$30,011 ปริมาณ
$30,011 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$4,110 ปริมาณ
4%
0.5–1.0%
$15,517 ปริมาณ
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 ปริมาณ
11%
1.5–2.0%
$1,978 ปริมาณ
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 ปริมาณ
18%
>2.5%
$4,320 ปริมาณ
45%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth places the highest implied probability (47.5%) on expansion above 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, AI-driven business investment, and resilient consumer spending that offset the modest 1.6% annualized Q1 2026 pace reported in the second BEA estimate. Forecasts from institutions such as the CBO, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2%, with Goldman Sachs citing a 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 pace, while headwinds including elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and slower immigration tempering labor force growth keep the 1.5–2.5% range as a close secondary cluster. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming Q2 GDP release and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and thereby influence growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$30,011วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth places the highest implied probability (47.5%) on expansion above 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, AI-driven business investment, and resilient consumer spending that offset the modest 1.6% annualized Q1 2026 pace reported in the second BEA estimate. Forecasts from institutions such as the CBO, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2%, with Goldman Sachs citing a 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 pace, while headwinds including elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and slower immigration tempering labor force growth keep the 1.5–2.5% range as a close secondary cluster. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming Q2 GDP release and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and thereby influence growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$30,011วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth places the highest implied probability (47.5%) on expansion above 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, AI-driven business investment, and resilient consumer spending that offset the modest 1.6% annualized Q1 2026 pace reported in the second BEA estimate. Forecasts from institutions such as the CBO, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2%, with Goldman Sachs citing a 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 pace, while headwinds including elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and slower immigration tempering labor force growth keep the 1.5–2.5% range as a close secondary cluster. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming Q2 GDP release and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and thereby influence growth trajectories.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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