Recent U.S. GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized advance in Q1 2026, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act via tax cuts and investment incentives, underpins the 45% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5% for the full year. Offsetting headwinds include elevated tariffs weighing on consumption and investment, reduced immigration slowing labor-force expansion, and an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that has lifted inflation and pressured real spending. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.4%, reflecting resilient business investment but a cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation readings and any shifts in trade or energy policy that could alter the growth trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 44%
1.5–2.0% 18.4%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 11.3%
$29,993 ปริมาณ
$29,993 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
11%
1.5–2.0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
18%
>2.5%
44%
>2.5% 44%
1.5–2.0% 18.4%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 11.3%
$29,993 ปริมาณ
$29,993 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$4,104 ปริมาณ
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,505 ปริมาณ
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 ปริมาณ
11%
1.5–2.0%
$1,978 ปริมาณ
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 ปริมาณ
18%
>2.5%
$4,320 ปริมาณ
44%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized advance in Q1 2026, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act via tax cuts and investment incentives, underpins the 45% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5% for the full year. Offsetting headwinds include elevated tariffs weighing on consumption and investment, reduced immigration slowing labor-force expansion, and an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that has lifted inflation and pressured real spending. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.4%, reflecting resilient business investment but a cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation readings and any shifts in trade or energy policy that could alter the growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,993วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized advance in Q1 2026, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act via tax cuts and investment incentives, underpins the 45% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5% for the full year. Offsetting headwinds include elevated tariffs weighing on consumption and investment, reduced immigration slowing labor-force expansion, and an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that has lifted inflation and pressured real spending. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.4%, reflecting resilient business investment but a cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation readings and any shifts in trade or energy policy that could alter the growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,993วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized advance in Q1 2026, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act via tax cuts and investment incentives, underpins the 45% market-implied odds on growth exceeding 2.5% for the full year. Offsetting headwinds include elevated tariffs weighing on consumption and investment, reduced immigration slowing labor-force expansion, and an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that has lifted inflation and pressured real spending. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.4%, reflecting resilient business investment but a cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation readings and any shifts in trade or energy policy that could alter the growth trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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