Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, which analysts expect to lift full-year expansion above the 2.0 percent mark despite tariff drag and tighter immigration policy. The Q1 2026 advance of 1.6 percent annualized, revised lower from 2.0 percent, reflects softer consumer spending and investment, yet May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate signal labor-market resilience that could support above-trend momentum. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid the Iran conflict, raises inflation risks that may limit Federal Reserve easing and cap consumer outlays. Market-implied odds favoring >2.5 percent growth at 44.5 percent price in the net positive impulse from tax cuts and deregulation outweighing near-term headwinds, while the clustered 1.5–2.5 percent range at roughly 36 percent reflects uncertainty around the duration of the oil shock and potential labor-force effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 47%
1.5–2.0% 18.6%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 11.2%
$29,953 ปริมาณ
$29,953 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
11%
1.5–2.0%
19%
2.0–2.5%
18%
>2.5%
47%
>2.5% 47%
1.5–2.0% 18.6%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 11.2%
$29,953 ปริมาณ
$29,953 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$4,072 ปริมาณ
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,500 ปริมาณ
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,934 ปริมาณ
11%
1.5–2.0%
$1,978 ปริมาณ
19%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 ปริมาณ
18%
>2.5%
$4,320 ปริมาณ
47%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, which analysts expect to lift full-year expansion above the 2.0 percent mark despite tariff drag and tighter immigration policy. The Q1 2026 advance of 1.6 percent annualized, revised lower from 2.0 percent, reflects softer consumer spending and investment, yet May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate signal labor-market resilience that could support above-trend momentum. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid the Iran conflict, raises inflation risks that may limit Federal Reserve easing and cap consumer outlays. Market-implied odds favoring >2.5 percent growth at 44.5 percent price in the net positive impulse from tax cuts and deregulation outweighing near-term headwinds, while the clustered 1.5–2.5 percent range at roughly 36 percent reflects uncertainty around the duration of the oil shock and potential labor-force effects.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,953วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, which analysts expect to lift full-year expansion above the 2.0 percent mark despite tariff drag and tighter immigration policy. The Q1 2026 advance of 1.6 percent annualized, revised lower from 2.0 percent, reflects softer consumer spending and investment, yet May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate signal labor-market resilience that could support above-trend momentum. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid the Iran conflict, raises inflation risks that may limit Federal Reserve easing and cap consumer outlays. Market-implied odds favoring >2.5 percent growth at 44.5 percent price in the net positive impulse from tax cuts and deregulation outweighing near-term headwinds, while the clustered 1.5–2.5 percent range at roughly 36 percent reflects uncertainty around the duration of the oil shock and potential labor-force effects.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,953วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, which analysts expect to lift full-year expansion above the 2.0 percent mark despite tariff drag and tighter immigration policy. The Q1 2026 advance of 1.6 percent annualized, revised lower from 2.0 percent, reflects softer consumer spending and investment, yet May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate signal labor-market resilience that could support above-trend momentum. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid the Iran conflict, raises inflation risks that may limit Federal Reserve easing and cap consumer outlays. Market-implied odds favoring >2.5 percent growth at 44.5 percent price in the net positive impulse from tax cuts and deregulation outweighing near-term headwinds, while the clustered 1.5–2.5 percent range at roughly 36 percent reflects uncertainty around the duration of the oil shock and potential labor-force effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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