Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment underpins the 93% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid sticky price pressures well above its 2% objective, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% odds of no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Trader consensus reflects this data trajectory and official communications emphasizing data dependence. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or unexpected labor market softening could introduce volatility and shift expectations toward cuts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$53,936 ปริมาณ
$53,936 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$53,936 ปริมาณ
$53,936 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,557 ปริมาณ
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 ปริมาณ
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 ปริมาณ
1%
Other
$1,967 ปริมาณ
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment underpins the 93% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid sticky price pressures well above its 2% objective, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% odds of no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Trader consensus reflects this data trajectory and official communications emphasizing data dependence. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or unexpected labor market softening could introduce volatility and shift expectations toward cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$53,936วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment underpins the 93% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid sticky price pressures well above its 2% objective, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% odds of no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Trader consensus reflects this data trajectory and official communications emphasizing data dependence. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or unexpected labor market softening could introduce volatility and shift expectations toward cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$53,936วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment underpins the 93% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid sticky price pressures well above its 2% objective, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% odds of no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Trader consensus reflects this data trajectory and official communications emphasizing data dependence. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or unexpected labor market softening could introduce volatility and shift expectations toward cuts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย