Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$829 ปริมาณ
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$676 ปริมาณ
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 ปริมาณ
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,297 ปริมาณ
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$936 ปริมาณ
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$545 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$739 ปริมาณ
3%
Other
$906 ปริมาณ
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,411วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,411วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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