The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony—following a federal judge's ruling of no evidence of wrongdoing—underpins the 95% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. With Powell's term as chair ending in May 2026 and successor Kevin Warsh confirmed, the absence of active investigations or credible legal threats since then has reinforced trader consensus around institutional norms protecting central bankers from politicized prosecution. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine Fed governance through 2028, though low-probability shifts could arise from entirely new, unsubstantiated allegations or extraordinary executive actions lacking precedent or evidentiary basis.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
5% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
5% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony—following a federal judge's ruling of no evidence of wrongdoing—underpins the 95% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. With Powell's term as chair ending in May 2026 and successor Kevin Warsh confirmed, the absence of active investigations or credible legal threats since then has reinforced trader consensus around institutional norms protecting central bankers from politicized prosecution. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine Fed governance through 2028, though low-probability shifts could arise from entirely new, unsubstantiated allegations or extraordinary executive actions lacking precedent or evidentiary basis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,665วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony—following a federal judge's ruling of no evidence of wrongdoing—underpins the 95% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. With Powell's term as chair ending in May 2026 and successor Kevin Warsh confirmed, the absence of active investigations or credible legal threats since then has reinforced trader consensus around institutional norms protecting central bankers from politicized prosecution. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine Fed governance through 2028, though low-probability shifts could arise from entirely new, unsubstantiated allegations or extraordinary executive actions lacking precedent or evidentiary basis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,665วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The DOJ's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony—following a federal judge's ruling of no evidence of wrongdoing—underpins the 95% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. With Powell's term as chair ending in May 2026 and successor Kevin Warsh confirmed, the absence of active investigations or credible legal threats since then has reinforced trader consensus around institutional norms protecting central bankers from politicized prosecution. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine Fed governance through 2028, though low-probability shifts could arise from entirely new, unsubstantiated allegations or extraordinary executive actions lacking precedent or evidentiary basis.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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