Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be incarcerated before 2027, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or active investigations against the Federal Reserve Chair. Powell continues to lead monetary policy decisions amid stable institutional norms and no reported legal proceedings that would alter his status. This pricing aligns with historical precedent for senior U.S. officials facing no such accountability risks during routine terms. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political weaponization of the justice system or unforeseen developments in unrelated matters, though current conditions show no supporting signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be incarcerated before 2027, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or active investigations against the Federal Reserve Chair. Powell continues to lead monetary policy decisions amid stable institutional norms and no reported legal proceedings that would alter his status. This pricing aligns with historical precedent for senior U.S. officials facing no such accountability risks during routine terms. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political weaponization of the justice system or unforeseen developments in unrelated matters, though current conditions show no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,761วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be incarcerated before 2027, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or active investigations against the Federal Reserve Chair. Powell continues to lead monetary policy decisions amid stable institutional norms and no reported legal proceedings that would alter his status. This pricing aligns with historical precedent for senior U.S. officials facing no such accountability risks during routine terms. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political weaponization of the justice system or unforeseen developments in unrelated matters, though current conditions show no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,761วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be incarcerated before 2027, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or active investigations against the Federal Reserve Chair. Powell continues to lead monetary policy decisions amid stable institutional norms and no reported legal proceedings that would alter his status. This pricing aligns with historical precedent for senior U.S. officials facing no such accountability risks during routine terms. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political weaponization of the justice system or unforeseen developments in unrelated matters, though current conditions show no supporting signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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