The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—centered on congressional testimony about the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation—remains the dominant factor anchoring near-zero implied probabilities of federal charges. A federal judge had already quashed related subpoenas in March, citing an absence of evidence beyond political friction over monetary policy, while the matter shifted to the Fed inspector general for review. This outcome cleared the path for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as successor when Powell’s term expired in May, reducing uncertainty around central-bank independence and the Fed funds rate path. With no new investigative activity since the referral and Powell’s ongoing Board tenure through 2028 offering limited fresh catalysts, trader consensus on prediction markets reflects the probe’s collapse and the high bar for any future indictment.