The primary driver of current Fed rate expectations is persistent inflation well above the 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% amid supply shocks and Middle East-related energy pressures, alongside a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9–3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and updated projections—showing roughly half of officials favoring at least one increase by year-end—shifted market pricing toward a possible September 16 move. Traders now assign around a 66% implied probability to a hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which includes fresh Summary of Economic Projections, versus prior expectations of steady policy. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report on September 4 and CPI release on September 11, which will shape whether incoming data reinforces or eases the hawkish tilt.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$2,698,342 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
60%
October Meeting
67%
$2,698,342 ปริมาณ
September Meeting
$1,168,042 ปริมาณ
60%
October Meeting
$570,301 ปริมาณ
67%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of current Fed rate expectations is persistent inflation well above the 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% amid supply shocks and Middle East-related energy pressures, alongside a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9–3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and updated projections—showing roughly half of officials favoring at least one increase by year-end—shifted market pricing toward a possible September 16 move. Traders now assign around a 66% implied probability to a hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which includes fresh Summary of Economic Projections, versus prior expectations of steady policy. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report on September 4 and CPI release on September 11, which will shape whether incoming data reinforces or eases the hawkish tilt.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,698,342วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of current Fed rate expectations is persistent inflation well above the 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% amid supply shocks and Middle East-related energy pressures, alongside a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9–3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and updated projections—showing roughly half of officials favoring at least one increase by year-end—shifted market pricing toward a possible September 16 move. Traders now assign around a 66% implied probability to a hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which includes fresh Summary of Economic Projections, versus prior expectations of steady policy. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report on September 4 and CPI release on September 11, which will shape whether incoming data reinforces or eases the hawkish tilt.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,698,342วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The primary driver of current Fed rate expectations is persistent inflation well above the 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% amid supply shocks and Middle East-related energy pressures, alongside a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9–3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and updated projections—showing roughly half of officials favoring at least one increase by year-end—shifted market pricing toward a possible September 16 move. Traders now assign around a 66% implied probability to a hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which includes fresh Summary of Economic Projections, versus prior expectations of steady policy. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report on September 4 and CPI release on September 11, which will shape whether incoming data reinforces or eases the hawkish tilt.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย