Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI data released April 10 showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and robust nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3, signaling labor market resilience. Chair Powell's March 18 post-FOMC remarks affirmed the current policy stance as appropriate for the 2% inflation target, tempering near-term cut expectations despite one 2026 reduction in the latest dot plot. Traders price modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease, with hikes below 5%, ahead of the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 80%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 14%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.0%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 2.4%
$3,687,628 ปริมาณ
$3,687,628 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
2%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
14%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
80%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
4%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 80%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 14%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.0%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 2.4%
$3,687,628 ปริมาณ
$3,687,628 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
$167,057 ปริมาณ
2%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$115,540 ปริมาณ
14%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$183,622 ปริมาณ
80%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$3,024,258 ปริมาณ
4%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$197,152 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI data released April 10 showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and robust nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3, signaling labor market resilience. Chair Powell's March 18 post-FOMC remarks affirmed the current policy stance as appropriate for the 2% inflation target, tempering near-term cut expectations despite one 2026 reduction in the latest dot plot. Traders price modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease, with hikes below 5%, ahead of the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,687,628วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI data released April 10 showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and robust nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3, signaling labor market resilience. Chair Powell's March 18 post-FOMC remarks affirmed the current policy stance as appropriate for the 2% inflation target, tempering near-term cut expectations despite one 2026 reduction in the latest dot plot. Traders price modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease, with hikes below 5%, ahead of the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,687,628วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI data released April 10 showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and robust nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3, signaling labor market resilience. Chair Powell's March 18 post-FOMC remarks affirmed the current policy stance as appropriate for the 2% inflation target, tempering near-term cut expectations despite one 2026 reduction in the latest dot plot. Traders price modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease, with hikes below 5%, ahead of the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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